Why Silver Could Drop Below $30/ozt

[Country]

What’s Next for Silver?

Silver experienced:

(1) the initial plunge phase in early May with a decline of 31% (i.e. from $48.42 to $33.53) and

(2) the bounce phase at the end of May going up 15% (i.e. from $33.53 to $38.48).

The post-bounce decline phase has been ongoing since the early part of June and has the potential to drop 15% to 30%. A 25% drop would, incidentally, bring the price of silver down to $29/ozt. which would be in keeping with the abovementioned Run phase of the Bump and Run pattern.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Yu/jun302011.html

[adagirl]

I would not be surprised to see silver hit its 200 DMA. This would be an outstanding buying opportunity. Should this occur my opinion is the dip in price will be short lived, I prognosticate it will happen in July (maybe August), and should it happen be armed with fiat to buy as much as you can.

[Country]

I would not be surprised to see silver hit its 200 DMA. This would be an outstanding buying opportunity. Should this occur my opinion is the dip in price will be short lived, I prognosticate it will happen in July (maybe August), and should it happen be armed with fiat to buy as much as you can.

Absolutely!!! That's just what I've been saying on some other threads.... It's almost time to get greedy, but we have to be patient a little longer.

[68Camaro]

Bottom line regardless is that most of the drop has occurred. You all are talking about 10% more, when we all think it is going to go up from here 300%. The most important thing is to have it, get it, and catch the 300+% rise, rather than worry about the 10% more to the bottom. It's difficult to hit the exact bottom. Congrats on those times you can, but I've stopped trying to make my primary decisions on doing so.

[beauanderos]

Bottom line regardless is that most of the drop has occurred. You all are talking about 10% more, when we all think it is going to go up from here 300%. The most important thing is to have it, get it, and catch the 300+% rise, rather than worry about the 10% more to the bottom. It's difficult to hit the exact bottom. Congrats on those times you can, but I've stopped trying to make my primary decisions on doing so.

Country, perhaps you should employ one of those allocation tables/buying charts that tells you how/when to take a position, such as JFF uses. If you think $29 or $28 will be the bottom, then use half of your capital to buy in at that point. Divide the difference between our current price and your projected bottom into three equidistant points. If we hit the first one, spend 1/8, hit the second one, spend 1/8, hit the third one, spend 1/4. This takes the emotion out of your decision making and gives you a design to follow. So... if you planned, for instance, to spend $8,000 (and our price range is $34 headed to $28), you would buy $1000 at $32.50, $1000 at $31, $2000 at $29.50, $4000 at 28.00.

[Copper Catcher]

This was done back in April 2011

A trader’s almost $1 million bet that an exchange-traded fund tracking silver will decline by July was today’s biggest single options trade on U.S. exchanges as futures on the metal reached a 31-year high.

Silver Options Trader Bets $1 Million on Price Drop by July

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-1 ... -july.html

And they say the market is not rigged.....BS!

[68Camaro]

Bottom line regardless is that most of the drop has occurred. You all are talking about 10% more, when we all think it is going to go up from here 300%. The most important thing is to have it, get it, and catch the 300+% rise, rather than worry about the 10% more to the bottom. It's difficult to hit the exact bottom. Congrats on those times you can, but I've stopped trying to make my primary decisions on doing so.

Country, perhaps you should employ one of those allocation tables/buying charts that tells you how/when to take a position, such as JFF uses. If you think $29 or $28 will be the bottom, then use half of your capital to buy in at that point. Divide the difference between our current price and your projected bottom into three equidistant points. If we hit the first one, spend 1/8, hit the second one, spend 1/8, hit the third one, spend 1/4. This takes the emotion out of your decision making and gives you a design to follow. So... if you planned, for instance, to spend $8,000 (and our price range is $34 headed to $28), you would buy $1000 at $32.50, $1000 at $31, $2000 at $29.50, $4000 at 28.00.

The difference in intent I think is that unlike normal trading sequences, if you intend to buy and hold, what will you do if it doesn't hit your target(s), and starts up? When do you buy in? Given that it is going up and down, this gets dicey. If it goes down to first target (say 32.50), but next goes up, when do you decide that it's hit bottom or not? If you wait too long at the wrong time, it'll be back up to 34, 35, 36 - and going up from there, and you'll have missed out totally.

It's a difficult thing.

The one thing you have going for you is the tradition of seasonal timing, and July being a down month. If that's your bet, then that is the deciding factor, and you both live by the sword and die by it as well.

[theo]

Bottom line regardless is that most of the drop has occurred. You all are talking about 10% more, when we all think it is going to go up from here 300%. The most important thing is to have it, get it, and catch the 300+% rise, rather than worry about the 10% more to the bottom. It's difficult to hit the exact bottom. Congrats on those times you can, but I've stopped trying to make my primary decisions on doing so.

I agree. I think that there can be a certain vanity attached to buying in at the very bottom. Many of those who were savvy enough to buy in at the $4 bottom are not shy in talking about it. Yet I've never heard anybody brag about buying in at say $6 in 1998. But is catching the absolute bottom worth the risk of missing the boat?

[moneydog]

What’s Next for Silver?

Silver experienced:

(1) the initial plunge phase in early May with a decline of 31% (i.e. from $48.42 to $33.53) and

(2) the bounce phase at the end of May going up 15% (i.e. from $33.53 to $38.48).

The post-bounce decline phase has been ongoing since the early part of June and has the potential to drop 15% to 30%. A 25% drop would, incidentally, bring the price of silver down to $29/ozt. which would be in keeping with the abovementioned Run phase of the Bump and Run pattern.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Yu/jun302011.html

let it fall hoard more

[commodityworldnews]

I'm a 4 year follower of realcent. I bought a ryedale and saved some pennies, but I had some life expenses, now I'm back in the game of investing in metals. I don't believe silver will fall ANYMORE. THERE IS A SECRET that no one is talking about in the news, but you can find it on my new website, here www.commodityworldnews.com This url forwards to a blog of mine with the video, it's not selling anything, just a blog. I uncovered an amazing secret that is totally legitimate and as soon as you view the video you are going to consider it and tell your friends now may be the time for the third rise in silver. The one minute video explains that people are buying in China for a specific reason and how they are being given unprecedented access. (These developments are happening in a part of the world that western news organizations don't touch, but is in the heart of Asia.) Please just read this article!! And then do your research on this information and post if you find anymore information on this, because I have not been able to find ANY news reports on this subject. This is some seriously underreported stuff. This reminds me of going on a trip to california and seeing 300,000 unoccupied homes in a line, outside Bakersfield, CA in 2006, and then KNOWING SOMETHING WAS UP in the real estate industry. It was dreamlike to drive through ten miles of new home ghost town, but it was real. Now there is another geographically remote development that no one in the northeast us investing community is considering.
it seems like no western news agencies have reported on yet, but by the end of the month, they may! All you silver investors will understand the implications. I do landscaping fulltime and I research commodity news for an hour and a half each day, and this is something great that I've found, I'm trying to build the website and could use some adsense clicks too if you get there.

[Mossy]

I'm a 4 year follower of realcent.

At's nice.

If you have something to say, perhaps you could just say it? Otherwise it sounds like a pitch to get someone to go to a malware site or a teaser for a pay-per-view.

[Copper Catcher]

commodityworldnews I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you are trying to share information. However you have to understand with this being your first post how people will assume you are just pumping your site thinking folks might click the ads to generate revenue for you.

[fasTT]

This reminds me of going on a trip to california and seeing 300,000 unoccupied homes in a line, outside Bakersfield, CA

300,000.

With California having about 30,000,000 people, that would be 1 percent of all inhabitants. Let's say each house would be on a 40 foot lot. 300,000 x 40 = 12,000,000 feet. With 5280 feet per mile, that would equal 227 miles.

bull[excrement].

[commodityworldnews]

the houses were in a ten mile by 6 mile rectangle area. And it was as real as day. you should go there. THAT is why the financial crash happened. they weren't one in front of another for 227 miles, that's crazy. The summary of what's on the website says that a new 10 oz gold futures contract opened for trade in 350 million bank of china savings accounts throught the new pan asian gold exchange on june 30th.

[commodityworldnews]

the website is a google blog and it has a video of the pan asia exchange with Andrew Mcguire saying that the shortside pressure of the big banks and governments will be destroyed when the 10 oz contracts and silver contracts begin trading. Chicago futures contracts for gold are 100 oz and silver 5000 oz, the pan asian ones are more accessable and lower amounts and give less margin percentage to investors. And eventually all of india, southeast asia and china wil be buying throught the exchange.

[commodityworldnews]

300,000 houses at 40 feet per lot in a line is actually 2270 miles, the straight line distance from new york to las vegas. You didn't even check the math in your haste to pick apart my truth sharing article. I'm on here because I believe in some of the same things, government manipulation is dangerous, and precious and base metals are real money.

[beauanderos]

I think 300,000 is quite an exaggeration, although 3,000 unoccupied homes might possibly be believable. Builders were going crazy back then, building subdivisions like crazy... but c'mon... there aren't even 300,000 homes in the ENTIRE city of Bakersfield, and you want us to believe a six mile by ten mile undeveloped tract of empty homes exists. Sorry. Won't go there. I live a hundred miles north of there... if such a thing existed we Californians would know about it. On the other hand, your website does link a good thought-provoking video featuring Andrew McGuire in part, that highlights the launching of the Pan Asian Metals Exchange. I don't know that the ramifications of having this competitive lower cost futures site available to the Oriental populace will ultimately prove to cause the undoing of the COMEX short parties... but it can only be a favorable influence on rising silver and gold prices. I hope it becomes very successful. The two articles I skimmed on the site seemed well written and credible.

[twentybux]

[quote="commodityworldnews"]I'm a 4 year follower of realcent.

Now everyone I am sure he is only an agent of the government here to help us, thus the lurking for 4 years.