WARNING. (a friendly "warning")

[neilgin1]

Friends,
i dont pretend to be as well versed in PM dealings as many of you. In fact, i get a lot of knowledge just reading the posts, and they are a blessing to me, in more ways than you know.

lately, i been getting blessed in two areas. One, you might think me daft, or nuts, but for the last three days, i been feeling something isnt right...i think the "wheels" might be coming off this thing BIG TIME. Meaning the jig is up, now its time to pay the piper.

i dont know HOW that walks itself out, but Ray hit the nail on the head a while back, when he called the intermediate term bottom in the G/S ratio. i know none of this has escaped your attention.

TPTB just cant keep the lid down, these are cornered gamblers, and God only knows what they're going to do, but i believe our silver is about to pop and pop big. i REALLY pray i'm wrong, and thats a no-s### item.

the second way i been getting blessed is that for the last two, three weeks, i been able to find a niche, where i been buying US silver coin at melt value, ( to be fair, just a titch above melt, in retail amounts that's something to be said)...suffice to say, i been ramping up.

so what i'm trying to say, and i know everyone here is TOO aware of the situation, i think the storm is almost on us, all i implore is, that if you feel that same feeling, dont let FEAR grab you, because fear is the enemy.

in fraternal love, neil

[neilgin1]

ps.....i forgot to say, i just checked the bullion direct "nucleo exchange" in ASE's, and noticed that the bid/ask is UNUSUALLY tight......39.75/39.98 in decent numbers...to me that says, we are at a crucial juncture.

meaning, that this poster, if i was 7 digit net, i'd hit every offer below $41, i'd take 'em all out, and consider myself fortunate.

but i aint 7 digit, so i'm just plugging along, in my small way. neil

and could you guys stay offa Ebay? (thats a joke)

[WizardTN]

You're not the only one that has had an itchy feeling running up between the shoulder blades for the last few weeks. The news of Moodys rating Ireland's bonds as "junk" and that they may be needing another bailout just about put the icing on the cake for me.

The wife and I had a discussion last night and I am now revising my focus from 1/3 of my "play" money on prep supplies to 1/2.
Spent the night looking for long term food deals. May post some I found in the prepping section.

[beauanderos]

Da Boyz know something is up as well, witness this week's desperation move to crush the prices again. Nice rebound so far, in just a few days.

[Rodebaugh]

Trying to time a bigger purchase neil.....yeah I know it is silly. But, I am happy with my silver holdings (voulme) and I only want to add chunks at a price thats right for me. Whether or not the market makers afford me this opertunity is the big question. So.....Strike price = $34.50 or $40.25.... whatever comes first. Hope the game keeps being played, and the yoyo we fondly call spot walks the dog at sub $35 long enough for me to pull the trigger.

With that crap said....I did buy about 10oz yesterday and sold approx 4oz. So, always buying some, and always selling a less.

[theo]

. . . .and there it is. Bernenke talks about the need for "additional policy support." Gold up over 1580 and silver up to 37.70.

[Pennysaved]

I have the same feeling that the other shoe is about to drop.

However, unlike the members on here who take action, most of the American public seems not to care or unaware of what is going on.

I was talking about this to a friend of mine today about this and her comment was "whatever happens happens"

[hejira11]

Thank you, Neil. I'm girding my loins

[Copper Catcher]

People at the time were worried about President Bush...Now we have Obama

All the President has to to impose "Directive 51" i.e. the Presidential Power during a National Emergency.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSm4fGx_ ... re=related

How far do you think we really are from what could be deemed a "National Emergency"?
We are not that far....in my opinion!

[neilgin1]

oh man.....you guys just lifted me up. coz i thought i was going mental.

who knows, maybe these maroons will up the ceiling on 2 Aug, and buy us a little more time.

i didnt like the way karzai's half brother got whacked, that kind of reminded me of when Massood, leader of the Northern Alliance (afghan) got assassinated on 9 Sep 2001, he was the Lion of Pashtun, a real leader and when i heard the news, i thought, 'thats weird, who'd wanna whack Massood, and why?' 2 days later we all had our answer.

Italys in the hot seat now, and i just heard Moodys is "going to review" our, the US's triple A rating....and yeh PD-51 could be a big nightmare.

right now i feel 3 to 1 "bank holiday" before Christmas....and we might get really lucky and it happens 1st or 2nd quarter in '12....OR they want till they crown Barry for term two, and then let it fall apart, but before that silvers going to be trading 70-110, imo

in closing. ask ourselves this..in our lil circle, we're having dialogues like this, right? We CANT be the ONLY grouping speaking as such, can we?

[galenrog]

It does look a bit nasty out there. While the wife is out of town the end of the month, I will be prospecting some hard to get to spots about an hour from me, unless my key doesn't work, then the drive around is another 2 hours, as long as no snow on the old logging roads once I get to 6000 ft. 12 days available, 4 to 6 dwt average per day. Gold is good.

[theo]

right now i feel 3 to 1 "bank holiday" before Christmas....

. . . . or by Labor Day. If the debt ceiling situation isn't resolved responsibly (and I'm not not sure if that's even possible) and if the ECB can't stop the bleeding of the PIIGS, things could unraval with unreal speed. Although the debt ceiling talks are mainly political theatre it casting a light on our debt situation; forcing people to wonder whether there is any real difference between the U.S. and Greece. We may have to start thinking about making final pleas to unconvinced loved ones to stock extra food and pull some cash out of the bank. Having said all that if we can make it to September/October without any real damage, then we will probably muddle through another year. Here's to hoping. . .

[68Camaro]

My "most likely" scenario? The ECB (maybe with Chinese help) will buy-off the PIIGS, for now. The US will raise the debt ceiling, short term. The overall bleeding will continue, but the can gets kicked down the road, yet again. Time is bought for another 6 months, or year. The sheeple don't want to believe things are bad, and that disbelief itself will stall off the problem for a few more months.

Each time this is done the eventual payback pain gets higher and higher, as the ultimate correction gets more severe.

Obama makes it to election time, the Republicans are fractured for whatever reason and can't find a great candidate with the right electability, and BHO is re-elected.

In all this the whole situation is inherently becoming more and more unstable. We are living in an inverted pyramid, the weight is piling on the top, and the pointy end at the bottom is having an increasingly difficult time supporting the weight.

At some point a perturbation will cause the inherent instability to go critical, and it will all fall apart.

While my "most likely" is that it won't come down on us in the next year, what I don't like is that as time marches along it takes less and less of a perturbation to cause the instability to go critical. Something could happen tomorrow, or next week, next month or a year - which would set this off. And as time moves along, it will take less and less to do this.

Lacking a new conventional war by the usual suspects or escalation of the current conflicts, my vote for the most likely tipping point will be European riots caused by the new austerity measures imposed by the ECB. The riots may turn into European Civil War. (World War has a history of being started by the Europeans.) And then TSHTF.

[neilgin1]

My "most likely" scenario? The ECB (maybe with Chinese help) will buy-off the PIIGS, for now. The US will raise the debt ceiling, short term. The overall bleeding will continue, but the can gets kicked down the road, yet again. Time is bought for another 6 months, or year. The sheeple don't want to believe things are bad, and that disbelief itself will stall off the problem for a few more months.

Each time this is done the eventual payback pain gets higher and higher, as the ultimate correction gets more severe.

Obama makes it to election time, the Republicans are fractured for whatever reason and can't find a great candidate with the right electability, and BHO is re-elected.

In all this the whole situation is inherently becoming more and more unstable. We are living in an inverted pyramid, the weight is piling on the top, and the pointy end at the bottom is having an increasingly difficult time supporting the weight.

At some point a perturbation will cause the inherent instability to go critical, and it will all fall apart.

While my "most likely" is that it won't come down on us in the next year, what I don't like is that as time marches along it takes less and less of a perturbation to cause the instability to go critical. Something could happen tomorrow, or next week, next month or a year - which would set this off. And as time moves along, it will take less and less to do this.

Lacking a new conventional war by the usual suspects or escalation of the current conflicts, my vote for the most likely tipping point will be European riots caused by the new austerity measures imposed by the ECB. The riots may turn into European Civil War. (World War has a history of being started by the Europeans.) And then TSHTF.

68, thats a VERY plausible scenario.

So, we all (i think all) KNOW that it's coming. We all can agree on that. and i know that we all vary in degrees of personal resource.

i mourn for our country...yes. i wish things could be different, but they aint, and i cant waste my time pointing fingers, or getting wrapped in that televised politcal theater, which is why i dont have cable.

ALL i hoping for right now at 1200 hours GMT on the 14th of July, is that we can get a little bit more time bought for us.

i know that "sounds" selfish, and please forgive me if it does, but not one of us here can do anything to change the big picture, so we gotta do, what we gotta to do, to batten down our hatches, our families, and we can thank God, that we got this lil forum to at least warn and encourage each other. thats important, imo. encourage one another thru this medium.

let everyone else "out there" be screaming and fighting with one another, but as for me, all i'll be HERE, is a brother that will encourage, and really thankful that i was "adopted" into this community, because it was you men that really kicked my preps into a much higher gear.

i really appreciated that one brother up a couple of posts above thats going to hit it hard prospecting, my prayer is that the keys work and he hits a rich vein, may his pan be FULL! amen.

i know many here arent fans of FDR (i was raised by my Depression era grandmother, so.....) but allow me to repeat what he said long ago;
"we have nothing to fear, but fear itself"....mighty words for this day, and i pray that you ALL be blessed, safe, well fed, and full of love, neil

[68Camaro]

Greatly appreciate your sentiments, Neil. I respect your wisdom, as well as that of many others here.

To our admins, as a bit of an aside - it's had me thinking... Like survivalblog (I think it is), which advertises its fixed IP address, perhaps we should literally ensure the forum as an entity is a bit prepared itself, as best it can be. If things get bad - but not so bad - such that some form of internet connectedness remains, it is quite likely that the Domain Name Servers (DNS) may not be functional. In that case access to most sites will be effectively cut-off. However access to fixed IP sites would remain by use of the fixed IP address (assuming we are or could be located at such a fixed address). Could the admins please explain where RealCent.org is in this regard, and if we're not at a fixed IP address, what it would take to move to such and get awareness of that out to the community? If there is a cost involved, I would contribute and I'm sure others would be more than willing to each kick in a bit.

Blessings to all of you, Rich

[neilgin1]

right now i feel 3 to 1 "bank holiday" before Christmas....

. . . . or by Labor Day. If the debt ceiling situation isn't resolved responsibly (and I'm not not sure if that's even possible) and if the ECB can't stop the bleeding of the PIIGS, things could unraval with unreal speed. Although the debt ceiling talks are mainly political theatre it casting a light on our debt situation; forcing people to wonder whether there is any real difference between the U.S. and Greece. We may have to start thinking about making final pleas to unconvinced loved ones to stock extra food and pull some cash out of the bank. Having said all that if we can make it to September/October without any real damage, then we will probably muddle through another year. Here's to hoping. . .

thats the HARD part Theo....i get this all the time, "oh thats just neil being paranoid again"....and then the calls, "you were right"....on 9/11, you dont know how many calls i got that DAY.

i got a few family members and in-laws, dear to me, with WAY more net worth than me, and for THREE years, longer in some cases, i been pleading and begging them, 'please, start getting out of that paper crap, and get into gold, silver, woods and water immediately'...meaning buy a get away ranch.

no traction, thats just "crazy neil again"...guess what?, i'll bet you i get 7 to 10 family members showing up here at the ranch.

what i WILL NOT do is do the whole "i told you so" thing, or "you should have listened"....i will NOT do that, i will say with love, "gimme a hug, thank God you made it, you sleep there, you sleep there, don't worry, everything gonna be okay"....and IN THAT, they will see Jesus Messiah, and in that, they will KNOW, why every morning, i got up, read the Bible, prayed, because Jesus lives IN me and Jesus is Love, and that Love has no recriminations.

in closing, remember the movie "Red Dawn" from when we were much younger? i love that scene, where the boys just been back to town, saw whats up and they come to the ranch of Ben Johnson's character? i love Ben Johnson, almost better than the Duke. Anyway, he welcomes the boys into his ranch house, fills them in on the situation, gives them a radio, some sippin likker, ammo, and advice, plus his two nieces to care for....."and let that burn in real deep"...AND then gives sturdy mounts, horses. Thats the kind of guy i admire....somehow, even in the fiction of that film, you just knew nothing bad was going to happen to him.

my family holds a reunion about 3 hours north of here, its the only time they leave that damn city, i decided i'm going to surprise them. they thought i wasnt coming, coz i got a LOT to do around here, but it can wait. (firewood, chores,etc)...and when i get up there, i'm NOT gonna launch into SHTF monologue....no, just going to revel in their company, and be salt and light.

neil

[neilgin1]

Rich!

good deal!!!! now i dont hafta call you "68" no mo!

great idea about the IP.

[neilgin1]

ps.....i forgot to say, i just checked the bullion direct "nucleo exchange" in ASE's, and noticed that the bid/ask is UNUSUALLY tight......39.75/39.98 in decent numbers...to me that says, we are at a crucial juncture.

meaning, that this poster, if i was 7 digit net, i'd hit every offer below $41, i'd take 'em all out, and consider myself fortunate.

but i aint 7 digit, so i'm just plugging along, in my small way. neil

and could you guys stay offa Ebay? (thats a joke)

morning of 14 July 1251 GMT:

just checked the nucleo exchange at bullion direct: a bid of 40.90 for 25,000 ASES and the nearest offer of any size is a 1001 ASES offered at 42.30!

yow!

another prediction? the silver "exchange" that shall remain nameless is going to have a ROUGH time, when Sept delivery comes around. i wonder what kind of games they'll play then?...or will they just DEFAULT?

i think the latter.

ps....if i had the dough, i'd hit those 1000 ASES's offered at 42.30 and never look back, gimme them all!

[68Camaro]

Relative Debt...

[shinnosuke]

Relative Debt...

Awesome graph. Makes it all very clear, tangible. The US debt is only the federal level, right? Does not include the individual States' indebtedness?

[68Camaro]

I can't vouch for the literal accuracy of the graph - and haven't had time to go dig into the original source from Agora, but it was presented in a Miles Franklin newsletter as sovereign national debt, so I don't believe it includes that of the states. However, addition or subtraction of the states wouldn't change the visual impact much.

[68Camaro]

Wow - that was my 1000th post. Snuck up on me...

[theo]

I can't vouch for the literal accuracy of the graph - and haven't had time to go dig into the original source from Agora, but it was presented in a Miles Franklin newsletter as sovereign national debt, so I don't believe it includes that of the states. However, addition or subtraction of the states wouldn't change the visual impact much.

This is a guess on my part as I don't have time to look it up right now, but I believe it refers to Federal debt only. If I remember correctly, "notional" value refers to total value held by both parties in a transaction. So in effect, we're double counting. This tracks with total notional value of the U.S. government CDS's being about 29 trillion, or twice our nationl debt.

Congrats on your 1000th post!

[shinnosuke]

I think you're right about the debt being only that of the fed gov. My concern is that when the states (especially if colored blue) default there will be a cry for federal assistance. California has too many Democrat voters, hence too big to fail. Same for NY, MI, etc. Conservatives will not be able to construct an acceptable argument for default and reboot so the problem will only grow.

Anyway, Ag is up some more today. Everyone, don't think of it as being expensive. Think of FRN's being worthless. Go buy some Ag with your worthless FRN's. What a deal; they're giving away perfectly good Ag for Monopoly money.

[whatsnext]

The us debt is much bigger b/c our country is much bigger.

It is more likely to see a partial one world gobermint over a world war as our solution. A war in the middleeast sure but not in the jungle or forests we just cant win those.
If china or russia enters action there is only one way to fight that.

We will see a slow grinding future ahead.