by iluc » Wed Sep 14, 2011 6:50 pm
It comes down to this for me, shinnosuke. If some miracle occurs and the world economy gets better, there are serious supply constraints on copper and it would do well. If the world economy doesn't get better, it's so-called leaders will print money trying to save themselves. In the latter scenario, I personally expect a significant drawdown in any economically-sensitive assets, copper being a prime example. It's not out of the question to see old Pennies fall below face value; it's a distinct possibility prior to the full-fledged reflation efforts (death throes) by the currency printers.
The second scenario is a hell of a lot more painful, of course. The advantage to Penny hoarders is that, in a temporarily horribly deflated world, they can take their coins back to the bank if they want, and use the proceeds to buy some other great assets that may have gone down 90% or so. -90% is a completely realistic figure for many things, especially stocks. Within my frame of reference, from 2007-2009, there were unleveraged "value investors" who saw their entire portfolios down 70%+, within which you can assume there were individual securities down 90%.
Coin hoarding is a powerful defensive measure in both a deflationary or inflationary environment.