Get used to cheap silver

[Market Harmony]

2011 kicked off the year at just over $30 silver... that's where we are right now.

It took 4 months before silver topped out at just under $50... and that was during a PM bull market.

Get used to cheap silver until at least the end of the year. But, it won't last, and nearly all of us know the reasons for this. Are the current prices the bottom? I guess that is a question for the speculator. For those who don't look at charts but instead look at what they get for their dollars, then this price depression will be a godsend in the future. That is, if you can find silver at or near these depressed prices. As many anecdotes indicate, dealers are unwilling to let it go so low. And, who can blame them? They should be just as informed as us.

So, get used to it. Premiums will be higher, but overall, silver is cheaper. Buy what you can, when you can, and be satisfied in the future that you were able to stick to your conviction. If other items suddenly become cheaper (food, tobacco, etc.), then it is time to think a little bit more on this. For now, these PM prices offer the smart investor a discount on real money.

[balz]

Some very powerful people/organizations are manipulating the market to avoid a total collapse of the system.

Of course the system WILL collapse.

But they do what they can to delay that.

Two words: PEAK OIL.

[fb101]

There is an upside.
Those few silver coins sitting on the end table that they've been meaning to take to the coin dealer and sell
will probably get dropped back into circulation now that silver is crashing.

Sort Sort Sort.

[Treetop]

My gut tells me this will be very short lived. Certainly no one gamble on my gut, but thats what I feel. This drop seems to of been pretty unexpected and the same gut told me it was coming. If I hadnt been so involved in my recent move I would of cashed out 25 percent or so....

[Lemon Thrower]

I don't know anyone selling at this price and if the powers that be keep it here then premiums are going to skyrocket and dealers are going to be wiped out of inventory. sprott is on KWN saying he was sold out temporarily today.

[justj2k78]

I just made a purchase, don't know if this is the bottom, middle, or highest we'll ever see again - it's cheaper than it was, so I bought some.

[Robarons]

What is interesing is that premiums will indeed rise offering some chance for sellers to get out while you can, but once a price drops and remains low supply will fill back in.

During the run up to $21-22 to the $9 crash in 2008, silver was impossible to find at $9. But as time went by 1000 oz bars were .59 over, then war nickels came in, then all the mints eventually made cheap silver.

I had a feeling we were going to see $27 silver, but I did not want to believe it, the crash from $49 to $33 and then $45 to the low $30's again I though we were done.

But lord knows what may happen. Either way Gold took less hits and recovered faster in both conditions.

[balz]

We need to stop thinking about how much silver is worth in fiat money.

Silver is silver is silver is silver.

If you have 100 oz. of silver, then you have... 100 oz of silver, whatever anybody at Wall Street of Chicago say.

Of course we can buy more silver with our fiat money when it goes down... Of course.

But still...

[Lemon Thrower]

i disagree with the premise that silver will stay low for an extended period and haven't seen any reasons why it should posted in this thread. it may, but no one has suggested a reason why it might.

[Market Harmony]

i disagree with the premise that silver will stay low for an extended period and haven't seen any reasons why it should posted in this thread. it may, but no one has suggested a reason why it might.

There will undoubtedly be fluctuations, both the drastic kind and the steady kind. And either one of these could be up or down. However, a $10 haircut in 2 days will most likely never be matched by a $10 increase in 2 days. Liquidity issues are the cause of a sharp decline in bull markets. On the other hand, an upswing in prices typically is a much slower and steady climb in a bull market, and is capped by a fast move higher which sucks up liquidity, causing a new decline.

Based on these loose presumptions, which are based on historical price movement analysis, there is a high probability that PM's will find a new level of support, build a base on that level, and then begin to rise slowly to new levels of price resistance. This period of time will most likely not be short. The drastic price declines we've witnessed will not be easily digested by the market. Once it is all settled, then a new market structure is formed, and the price direction at that time will reflect more fundamental-centric minds building their new positions. Whether that be short or long.

[68Camaro]

I agree with MH, more or less, and noted that in another thread. Not sure we have the same timeline, but the principles are the same. I think it rises early the coming week, falls again quickly due to various events of the coming week, and as profit takers who bought lower take their profits. Then starts a rise similar to what we saw in May/June (with all the usual small dips and rises along the way). I think it hits 40 again in November.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

The sale is only going to last for a very short period... 1-2 weeks tops. The run on physical is happening as I write this.

The CME and 'Crimex' will not be able to manipulate the prices anymore when it becomes an all cash market.

I see silver around the $60-75 area by the end of 2011.

[Mossy]

APMEX ran out of "commercial silver", the cheapest, along with the more popular rounds. I suspect we are going to face waiting periods next week, if we can find anyone to fill the orders.

[beauanderos]

I suspect we might see a rather quick retracement of about one fourth of the downward correction, with an upward move commencing AFTER options expiry. I predict a 75 cent up move on Wednesday, $1 on Thursday, and then the excitement will subside and we might see steady days of 25 to 40 cents a day for weeks at a time with an occasional sideways consolidative day thrown into the mix. The volatility may well disappear until next options date, at which time we could witness more fireworks. I do agree that it will take weeks to recover the damage inflicted in days. And this does truly urine me off

[avidbrandy]

So I didn't realize margin requirements had gotten raised again. Gold AND silver at the same time. that's a first. I guess we should have known. They just keep trying to keep it down.

[beauanderos]

So I didn't realize margin requirements had gotten raised again. Gold AND silver at the same time. that's a first. I guess we should have known. They just keep trying to keep it down.

They even hit copper at the same time.

[neilgin1]

i disagree with the premise that silver will stay low for an extended period and haven't seen any reasons why it should posted in this thread. it may, but no one has suggested a reason why it might.

There will undoubtedly be fluctuations, both the drastic kind and the steady kind. And either one of these could be up or down. However, a $10 haircut in 2 days will most likely never be matched by a $10 increase in 2 days. Liquidity issues are the cause of a sharp decline in bull markets. On the other hand, an upswing in prices typically is a much slower and steady climb in a bull market, and is capped by a fast move higher which sucks up liquidity, causing a new decline.

Based on these loose presumptions, which are based on historical price movement analysis, there is a high probability that PM's will find a new level of support, build a base on that level, and then begin to rise slowly to new levels of price resistance. This period of time will most likely not be short. The drastic price declines we've witnessed will not be easily digested by the market. Once it is all settled, then a new market structure is formed, and the price direction at that time will reflect more fundamental-centric minds building their new positions. Whether that be short or long.

wise words that should be heeded.