Black Swan Coming

[beauanderos]

The most recent margin hike increases by the CME being instituted at close of market on Monday... and the unwarranted leakage of rumors referring to this... caused the precious metals market chaos we just witnessed. As well, undoubtedly TPTB piled on more shorts to the panic selling caused by pending margin calls. The question is... what is their motivation for hammering the markets THIS much in such a short of time? 27% down silver in two days. My guess? This is a pre-emptive strike on their part to discourage participation in the ongoing metals bull that is due to EXPLODE when an event occurs (that they know about, but we are unaware) in the very near future. What that event might be, and in what time frame it might occur are sheer speculation... but know this. They do not operate without motive. Is it only due to the approach of options expiry? I doubt it. There is something much larger afoot. A Greek default? Bank of America bankruptcy? I could go on and on. Now is not the time to become discouraged at recent paper losses, keep the faith and keep stacking.

[blackrabbit]

Hundreds of black swans are out there flying and swimming around. We are bound to come across an angry one sooner than later. I am not worried about the paper prices and think your conspiratorial thinking is right on

[TXBullion]

JFF said the strengthening of the USD would be the realcent black swan, anyone remember that?

[aristobolus]

Where is JonFlyFish when you need him?

[aristobolus]

JFF said the strengthening of the USD would be the realcent black swan, anyone remember that?

I actually wrote my post without reading this one; I guess a few of us have memory of this!

[neilgin1]

The most recent margin hike increases by the CME being instituted at close of market on Monday... and the unwarranted leakage of rumors referring to this... caused the precious metals market chaos we just witnessed. As well, undoubtedly TPTB piled on more shorts to the panic selling caused by pending margin calls. The question is... what is their motivation for hammering the markets THIS much in such a short of time? 27% down silver in two days. My guess? This is a pre-emptive strike on their part to discourage participation in the ongoing metals bull that is due to EXPLODE when an event occurs (that they know about, but we are unaware) in the very near future. What that event might be, and in what time frame it might occur are sheer speculation... but know this. They do not operate without motive. Is it only due to the approach of options expiry? I doubt it. There is something much larger afoot. A Greek default? Bank of America bankruptcy? I could go on and on. Now is not the time to become discouraged at recent paper losses, keep the faith and keep stacking.

maybe they smell the wind and they want to get long at a decent price. When Jesse Livermore wanted to corner a stock, he would pound it on the short side, see how much it could take, use his covering as support and start to accumulate.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

The question is... what is their motivation for hammering the markets THIS much in such a short of time? 27% down silver in two days. My guess? This is a pre-emptive strike on their part to discourage participation in the ongoing metals bull that is due to EXPLODE when an event occurs (that they know about, but we are unaware) in the very near future. What that event might be, and in what time frame it might occur are sheer speculation... but know this. They do not operate without motive. Is it only due to the approach of options expiry? I doubt it. There is something much larger afoot. A Greek default? Bank of America bankruptcy? I could go on and on. Now is not the time to become discouraged at recent paper losses, keep the faith and keep stacking.

Very good insight here. I also believe they are pre-empting an event that they already know is coming... front-run it by shorting, then go all in at much lower levels.

Bankster boys, please do not let me down.

[rainsonme]

I think this may be one way of shoring up the Euro. Eliminating one more escape route for people fleeing the Euro as that crisis deepens. Greek restructuring (default with a nice name) is priced in, but there is much more risk with Italy, Spain, Ireland, and many of the biggest Euro-banks are under-capitalized if they have to revalue the bonds they hold. Besides the dollar, gold and sivler would be the obviouse escape routes; causing a crash in these PM ahead of a rush out the Euro door.

[aristobolus]

I think this may be one way of shoring up the Euro. Eliminating one more escape route for people fleeing the Euro as that crisis deepens. Greek restructuring (default with a nice name) is priced in, but there is much more risk with Italy, Spain, Ireland, and many of the biggest Euro-banks are under-capitalized if they have to revalue the bonds they hold. Besides the dollar, gold and sivler would be the obviouse escape routes; causing a crash in these PM ahead of a rush out the Euro door.

Keen observations. We also see this pattern with the unprecedented devaluing of the Swiss Franc as well.

[Treetop]

JFF said the strengthening of the USD would be the realcent black swan, anyone remember that?

Yep... Although this wasnt exactly an actually strong dollar by my understanding but all the other currencies being weaker. the dollar isnt even stronger then these other currencies because it has more to stand on, but because it is the reserve currency.

Paper promises are still papper promises. no end in sight to the build up of our debts.... Moves being made to alter the dollars role as reserve currency. Libya appears in part a move to stave this off. the empire is still burning, its just a bigger empire then other so it takes longer. thats how it looks to me anway...

I do wish though I followed my gut last week or two and sold off some holdings... (that is if i had any Ha!)

[aristobolus]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi9sLkyhhlE

[68Camaro]

Silver has taken a huge hit for sure. What will be interesting is the practical market today. Will $26 gold, which briefly showed its face overnight, actually appear on the NY market today? Will any actual physical dealers honor that and actually sell at that rate? (If so, I see a 100 oz JM bar in my future today.)

For all the "pounding", gold hasn't had the same percentage drop, and is still near its all-time high. Still higher than when I slowed volume buying it 2 months ago. Silver they can let (and others encourage to) fall, but gold seems to have a more solid bottom under it - national interests are buying gold first, and competing for that, so the discounting of gold is far less. 1600 gold? It was hardly any time ago that that seemed far off.

The extreme volatility has been predicted. Hang in there.

[shinnosuke]

Silver has taken a huge hit for sure. What will be interesting is the practical market today. Will $26 gold, which briefly showed its face overnight, actually appear on the NY market today? Will any actual physical dealers honor that and actually sell at that rate? (If so, I see a 100 oz JM bar in my future today.)

For all the "pounding", gold hasn't had the same percentage drop, and is still near its all-time high. Still higher than when I slowed volume buying it 2 months ago. Silver they can let (and others encourage to) fall, but gold seems to have a more solid bottom under it - national interests are buying gold first, and competing for that, so the discounting of gold is far less. 1600 gold? It was hardly any time ago that that seemed far off.

The extreme volatility has been predicted. Hang in there.

Right you are, brother. It seems the only prediction that I could accurately make is that there will be volatility.

[neilgin1]

remember how 20 was the big 'maginot line" to the upside? how much it took to pierce that? you're going to have a wide choice of ASES rolls to buy at 600. thats good.....you might be paying a $7 premium, but so what? there's going to be LOTS of fine Morgan rolls, Peace rolls, i was mister 90 and 40%, post 25X's , this time, its the ASES and Morgan's and Peace dollars, i got my eyes on now. This is the last call to get onboard, this is a GIFT, we just gotta be really cool, and not get crazy, premature, overlevraged, etc.

[Mossy]

Wow. Gold dipped below $1550?

[Rodebaugh]

Do the greek have a gold reserve? Could they now or in the near term move it to help with debt?

Just running ideas around in the brain.

[Mossy]

Do the greek have a gold reserve? Could they now or in the near term move it to help with debt?

Just running ideas around in the brain.

Ran into a puzzling claim a couple of weeks back. Seems Greece is forbidden to sell gold by the terms of the European Union or the rules that set up the Euro, or something. Which makes me wonder just what the heck a "gold reserve" is supposed to be a reserve for?

[Rodebaugh]

Thanks Mossy

[neilgin1]

Do the greek have a gold reserve? Could they now or in the near term move it to help with debt?

Just running ideas around in the brain.

yeh i think they got about 340 tonnes, more or less, Italys the PRIZE, they got about 2400 tonnes, i think.

[Mossy]

You're welcome. I wish I could be more informative. Maybe someone over at zero hedge can recall what it was.