we're going a lot higher

[neilgin1]

this aint perma bull boosterism, its a cold blooded read, we are going higher real soon, back up into the 40's.....and beyond that resistance, i dont have a time frame. all of a sudden quality silver's coming back out.

[68Camaro]

Well, to channel Thogey...


BULLY

[barrytrot]

neilgin1: I definitely love how you make a stand. Often a different stand on consecutive days, but you make a new stand with equal firmness

Really, I wish more people believed in themselves like that.

It's refreshing. Plus your word play is often quite pleasant to read!

Keep it up.

And, fyi, I know that changing your mind, especially in this environment is just being wise

[neilgin1]

Appreciate those kind words Barry, i sure do.

Ebay alert---i'm telling you all, i feel there might be a new 'tier' of buyer appearing on the scene, a fourth tier, guys that saw the rush past 20, realized they're missing the train, and are DESPERATE to get silver, watch it go to 50, waiting coz its "too high", comes off down to 33, try and climb "on board", we all know about the PREMIUM, they miss the boat AGAIN as it goes from 33 to 44, then they watch it crazy trade down to 26, (again, not the real price)......NOW, these guys are all over Ebay, snapping up the real good rolls, and paying HUGE premiums. Now i do get agressive in bidding, and i might have a GOOD pretend stack of silver, but this "4th tier" of new buyers are just cleaning my clock. i know silver is going to $130-160 first stop and 100X FV in 90's, but i dont have all the FRN's in the world to keep up with these guys, that how intense demand is getting on Ebay....and believe me, i was ramping bids for the stuff i wanted, but these guys are ramping my ramps......we are going a lot lot higher. Unless you friggin absolutely neccesary, resist the urge to sell at 50...or at 75, see how she takes the $100 mark, thats gonna be the big one.

[silverflake]

neilgin1, I enjoy reading your posts. You are right on. Nothing scientific but I can feel silver bubbling too. It's a gut feeling and I have been scraping every penny (zincs) I can together to visit my LCS and buy ASEs. Have been able to get 22 of them in the last week and a half. Doesn't sound like much but at $36-38/coin I am buying leverage for the take off. I hope everyone is grabbing what they can while they can. My gut also tells me (and I have mentioned it somewhere in another post) that the window of opportunity for buying cheap silver is going to close soon. There's more wisdom in these threads here on realcent than there is on the whole rest of the web.

[shinnosuke]

I had some ebay bucks that I needed to burn today so I bid on half an ounce of 90% with 3 minutes left. Figured with $13.something in free money I could pay a little extra. Nope. Somebody bought that little prize for $22.50. That's $45 bucks an ounce plus shipping. Earth to ebay buyers, come in ebay buyers...

[Tourney64]

I heard on Glenn Beck that he predicts that the Euro will fail and when that happens gold will go down because a lot of gold will enter the system. This is exactly what has been happening to gold every time the Euro seems to be in trouble. His track record is unbelievable. Soon after the Euro fails, gold will then rise again.

[shinnosuke]

I heard on Glenn Beck that he predicts that the Euro will fail and when that happens gold will go down because a lot of gold will enter the system. This is exactly what has been happening to gold every time the Euro seems to be in trouble. His track record is unbelievable. Soon after the Euro fails, gold will then rise again.

So the Euro fails and the rush to safety is the US$ and then everybody realizes that the dollar is worthless too...like that?

[morris14ccm]

Appreciate those kind words Barry, i sure do.

Ebay alert---i'm telling you all, i feel there might be a new 'tier' of buyer appearing on the scene, a fourth tier, guys that saw the rush past 20, realized they're missing the train, and are DESPERATE to get silver, watch it go to 50, waiting coz its "too high", comes off down to 33, try and climb "on board", we all know about the PREMIUM, they miss the boat AGAIN as it goes from 33 to 44, then they watch it crazy trade down to 26, (again, not the real price)......NOW, these guys are all over Ebay, snapping up the real good rolls, and paying HUGE premiums. Now i do get agressive in bidding, and i might have a GOOD pretend stack of silver, but this "4th tier" of new buyers are just cleaning my clock. i know silver is going to $130-160 first stop and 100X FV in 90's, but i dont have all the FRN's in the world to keep up with these guys, that how intense demand is getting on Ebay....and believe me, i was ramping bids for the stuff i wanted, but these guys are ramping my ramps......we are going a lot lot higher. Unless you friggin absolutely neccesary, resist the urge to sell at 50...or at 75, see how she takes the $100 mark, thats gonna be the big one.

I just got into stacking, a few weeks before joining this forum and hope it stays lower so I can boost my stack. I can't understand the eBay buyers though. Why pay that much? I've thought about just buying from Goldmart and just selling on eBay. Even with the fees you would be able to make a profit.

[Treetop]

I think we are headed lower. nothing but a gut feeling here. might go up first, but I think we see 26 or lower again.

[68Camaro]

Just skimmed ebay 90% stuff a bit this morning while waiting for wife to get ready, and - good grief - I think prices are higher than before the recent dip! Granted, there were a few selections of well-circulated coins below 30x, but almost all of the AU/BU rolls of Franklins/JFKs were 40x to even 120x. Crazy! Crazy good. I need to respect my AU/BU rolls a bit better...

[Double3]

Yeah I was picking up 90% under spot before the dip now it costs the same as I was paying or more.

[slickeast]

Just skimmed ebay 90% stuff a bit this morning while waiting for wife to get ready, and - good grief - I think prices are higher than before the recent dip! Granted, there were a few selections of well-circulated coins below 30x, but almost all of the AU/BU rolls of Franklins/JFKs were 40x to even 120x. Crazy! Crazy good. I need to respect my AU/BU rolls a bit better...

You probably had time to look at every auction on e-bay.

[neilgin1]

Just skimmed ebay 90% stuff a bit this morning while waiting for wife to get ready, and - good grief - I think prices are higher than before the recent dip! Granted, there were a few selections of well-circulated coins below 30x, but almost all of the AU/BU rolls of Franklins/JFKs were 40x to even 120x. Crazy! Crazy good. I need to respect my AU/BU rolls a bit better...

thats what i'm saying, there's a new tier of buyer out there, and they got FRN's, and will clean your clock. i'm looking at a roll right now, one i want, thought i ramped the bid at 35X's a few days back, guy comes in bids 36, he gots 76 stars, fairly new buyer, so what do i do? now I'm "Israeli", i neither confirm nor deny possession of a nuclear arsenal, but do i go nuclear on this guy and just bid 45X's?...and what if that doesnt blow him OR OTHERS away? i mean the concrete guy and the plumbers want FRN's...i'm just glad i MIGHT have got agressive at 10 to 15X's face and only went for GEM/BU's at the major start. i felt that was the way to go for the begginning bulk, and i see now that decision was the correct one, but, for me, it would be OVERTRADING to get nuclear, whip it out to see who's got the bigger johnson...still though...PROOF rolls make me insane...let him have it....here's the roll, see if any of you guys want to pick this one off...if i wasnt slightly squeezed, i'd bid 45 and wouldnt even think twice, this is a PRIME ROLL:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/360397277338?ss ... 1426.l2649

cheers, much love, hasta la vista, beauno ventura, saynora, and all that other stuff..ARRRGHHH!!! neil

[neilgin1]

i got to thinking about trading, my prior life in the pits, the stuff i know, all the dirty laundry, guys been telling me for years, "write a play, write a movie on it"....and i've one in my head for over a decade, i'm just afraid what would happen, that it would be so real so visceral, that it would be "Wall Street"'ed...all you guys seen Oliver Stone"s "Wall Street" i'm certain, right?....every guy i grew up with in the pits, in the trading offices, LOVED that movie, LOVED "Gecko", and could recite lines from the film, which was the exact opposite of Stone's INTENT, it was acautionary tale about monet seduction. i got where he was coming from, i thought Gecko was scum, guys like him hurt capitalism, i always liked Terrence Stamp's character of "Sir Larry Wildman"...so here's a clip. y'know, the movie "Wall Street" is VERY real, it's not a hollywood invention, thats why we're in this terrible trouble today, so i wouldnt want to bring ANY glory to a bunch of pork belly traders, enjoy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2KhVQbv06s

[68Camaro]

let him have it....here's the roll, see if any of you guys want to pick this one off...if i wasnt slightly squeezed, i'd bid 45 and wouldnt even think twice, this is a PRIME ROLL:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/360397277338?ss ... 1426.l2649

Proofs... I like AU/BU, and don't mind have a couple of proof around to look at, but a roll? These aren't worth more than AU to me. I have other better options. I'm passing...

[Treetop]

I think I might have a bit of insight into ebay actually. First I will say ebay goes in cycles. Ive seen periods of high prices there and some of slightly depressed ones.... also various influxes of new buyers...

One of the recent new buyers on ebay is a friend of mine. I had told him ebay is a good place to get a feel for prices and to buy. I guess I should of gotten into more detail, because he looked at the insane BIN prices currently on ebay which seem ever increasingly higher and thought he was getting a good deal paying WELL over spot on some regular auctions. Granted this is only one guy Im talking about but I could imagine many people like me could of directed friends to ebay as a good source with similar results. Actually doesnt matter how they ended up buying on ebay, but if they looked at the BIN stuff it could be thinking anything less is a deal. otherwise it doesnt make much sense since you can source the same stuff elsewhere cheaper any day of the week from established companies.

[neilgin1]

Tree, thats a good post, i like hearing whats happening even if its just one guys testimony. i notice sometimes there's a tendency for guys here, to argue with the market. thats not an insult, it just is. what might seem like crazy prices to us, is doable to another guy. the market is whatever somebodies willing to pay. now i see there's always been a BIN seller of ASE rolls at 1300, its a coin store in IL, and i always wonder, do these guys actually SELL rolls of ASES at 1300?!
maybe, and if they do, thats where the markets at...sometimes, other times its Gainesborough at 2.79 over, or Ebay auctions at 850, but its become apparent, and this is an understatement that the Comex board is becoming increasingly irrevellant. if you look at the open interest, you had a massive long capitulation, maybe 14,000 cars..who were these longs? maybe some industrial users, hedging, standing for delievery, or they were mini raptor hedge funds, but its become apparent, they've said "enough!, we're outta here" do you remember when we were zipping up to 50, that first time? did you hear that tale, that a bunch of smaller hedge funds, that were standing for delivery, got a letter, from the "shorts" (we know who they are) that said, "you're not getting silver, what you are getting is $50 a zee FRN, take or leave it, and if you leave it, we're going to default, call you an unsecured creditors, and you'll be the last in line when the legal dust settles"...from i understand, these funds took the FRN's, and i betcha, all these firms, said "fine, but we're never coming back here again". When i landed on the CME in 81, WE had a zipping thick Gold pit, which in a few years went bye bye, and COMEX took the lead in gold. i was too young to know why, but now i do. If any trader, individuals, funds, FEELS that a market is jimmyrigged, they will go away, and thats what happened. dont laugh, but it happened to pork bellys, which in its day was a prime time spec market, that had an underlying hedger/cash user base, but again, the pit guys just raped and pillaged, investors felt that it was an uneven playing field and as time went by, they went bye bye. i KNOW the guy who had the last 11 contracts in that market, which were all REAL 40,000 pound loads of pork, in warehouses, HEDGED, and he died. he was my old boss, a good man, tough, but a square shooter. same thing with the egg market, and onion markets at the CME back in the day...and if thats whats happening to COMEX silver, so where do you find price discovery? Look at the stock market, the crazy volaltility, you think the individual investor wants a piece of that?...no way. check out mutual fund redemptions over the past 7 months, individual investors been taking money OUT for 7 straight months, and these key click wanks are taking over...flash crashs in individual issues?...who wants that? Thats why you got these folks camping out near Wall Street. Its not just something thats going away, and they REALLY dont know what they want...or what they're protesting about, all they know, is that America's business landscape is no longer a "hope", meaning, if you do the right things, play by the rules, go to college, work hard, save, invest ...it doesnt matter anymore, because in the end, they feel they're screwed.....and basically they are. This "hooray for me, and FU" type of predatory captialism i been seeing all my adult life, up close, just gives food to those hate free market principles. Gecko was wrong, "Greed is not good". Greed kills the goose. So we best just continue "insuring" the FRN's we have, by buying PM's, and if EBay is the place for price discovery, so be it.

[68Camaro]

Since you've seen these types of things up close, what happened during the transition period(s), when the markets moved elsewhere? Was there consensus on where to go, or did the market split up into several places before coming back together again in a new locaiton? Did it start as a dwindle, then turn to a flood quickly? Wondering where it's going to go this time, and what the middlemen are going to do about sorting out pricing both for buying as well as selling. I wonder if the open of the Chinese exchange next year is going to kill COMEX.

[silverflake]

neilgin1 and treetop, good info from both of you. My question, and I think I know the answer, should I dump the ETFs (SLV and IAU is what I have). Does anybody here buy physical metal in their IRAs? Thanks for any info guys.

[68Camaro]

neilgin1 and treetop, good info from both of you. My question, and I think I know the answer, should I dump the ETFs (SLV and IAU is what I have). Does anybody here buy physical metal in their IRAs? Thanks for any info guys.

I have PSLV and PHYS in my 401K, about 3/4 of the total, because I have to have something, and that seems as good as anything. I made a lot over the summer trading on the ups/downs. Now it's just sitting...

[silverflake]

Don't know if any of you read Patrick Heller's "Liberty's Outlook" newsletter (www.libertycoinservice.com) but in his newest newsletter from 10/4, he has this interesting tidbit of statistics to say about the recent haircut that gold and silver took:

"The sudden drops in gold and silver prices were in excess of 5 standard deviations, which means that the price declines of the magnitude that took place had only a 1 in 7,440,000 chance of occurring at random."

In other words, theses prices were pushed down, they didn't drop down.

Can anybody (hello neilgin1) explain the statictical relevance of 5 standard deviations to me and how it would affect PM trading (or any trading)? Thanks in advance.

By the way, his newsletter is extremely informative monthly.

[68Camaro]

I know you requested Neil by name, but I'll interject and say that - while the view is not universally accepted here - it is widely accepted here and in much of PM-dom that there is a concerted commodity exchange price manipulation effort in PMs. Possibly for different reasons, between gold and silver. Silver appears to have a profit motive, where powerful major traders chose (many years ago) to take short positions and realized they could manipulate the market in so doing, and profit from it by repeatedly cycling the market. Control of Gold seems to be nation-state sponsored, and more focused on limiting price rises over time. Different reasons, perhaps, but the mechanics of how both are manipulated are similar. The specifics, as well as the positions of those here that think this is ridiculous, have been discussed at length here in many threads and are widely available on the web (see many of the coinflation article links). I've been following the PM market closely for a year, and casually for several more before that, have read much on this, and at certain often predictable times the PM market appears well orchestrated, as has been claimed by many insiders that now follow and report on this. Lawsuites have been filed, but to date have not found any targets.

[68Camaro]

Oh - 5 standard deviations just means that it is an event that would be extremely unlikely to be encounted in any given day in a normal market. That doesn't mean, however, that it is impossible, even if there was no manipulation. It is the patterns of manipulation over time that make the argument, not a single dip which can be created by market forces, if there are fundamentals behind the change. In this case the fundamentals causing the dip were present but were fairly weak - the dip should not have been nearly that strong, even though gold had gotten a bit off the moving average line.

[neilgin1]

68, couldnt have said it better, if i was a PM bank metal desk trader it would just be common practice to torture silver bulls, not for fun, but like using an ATM machine. but looking at Comex open interest, a LOT of guys have left.

silverflake, i never heard of 5 standard deviation. in futures, i was always meat, grains and crude, very simple stuff, just really a pit guy, sure we looked at charts, knew the fundamentals, and traded the pit. See the pits were the last place a neighborhood kid could come in off the streets, become a lowly runner, learn the biz on his feet, and if you had street smarts, were tough, could handle high pressure, you'd make money. those days are over. Now its The MBA's and math quants who all sit in back offices making keystrokes in front of a screen. i'm sorry i couldnt help you on that. neil