The Euro fails, there are runs on banks... Now What????

[NHsorter]

Looking for your hypotheticals here. If they can't come to an agreement in Europe and they let banks go down over there, and a big bank or two goes down here because of it.... What are the ramifications for us, realcenters, real Americans. With a specific interest in PM's both paper and physical, how will the markets react?

It's the Trillion dollar question, I know. But I am just curious to see where you think a euro failure would bring us. I really respect and cherish the RC perspective and discourse on these topics.

[everything]

Nothing, they go back to their old currencies. Of course the power tycoons will turn it into financial terrorism on the public one way or another. I don't see the big deal with a bank failure, plenty of banks to go around, it's the people in charge of these institutions who don't want to see the gravy train stop.

[shinnosuke]

In 1968, my father quit his job at a Shell refinery in Houston and, like his father and brother before him, became a plumber. I was almost 9 years old at the time. My dad had neither the inclination or patience to hire any adults to work with him so I became the plumber's helper. Six days a week in the summer, on Saturdays during the school year and many evenings after school, I rode his plumbing truck. Paid for a cheap car and college by working with my dad. The point is he had been watching the Fed for many years (yeah, just a dumb-a$$ plumber raised like a hillbilly in the Arkansas Ozarks interested in a fraudulent fractional reserve system, go figure) before he started his own business. So when I started working with him, he finally had a willing (albeit a somewhat captive) listener. He tried to talk to his older brothers and friends about the deception, but they thought he was crazy. Poor as he and my mom were, starting in 1965, they saved every silver dime and quarter they got in change. All his friends would even trade him for face value if they had any. My dad was a laughing stock back then.

And now he's 80, heart starting to give out, bladder too, and all his predictions about the coming Big Crash that he made back in the 60s and 70s have still not happened. Nonetheless, he's still going to be right, someday. What he thinks, and, by extension, what I think is that the Euro will fall apart, even with IMF (meaning your tax dollars) support. When that happens the flight-to-safety will temporarily cause the US dollar to rise and all of the physical longs here will get another sick feeling in our stomachs like: How can the fiat currency of Europe crash and PMs fall?

But the dollar's stardom won't last. The fundamentals aren't there. And then we're looking at a single currency for the world because that's what the elites have had planned for us peons for eons. PMs, if you can use them, will be our treasure and worth many multiples of what we price them at now.

Sorry for the trip down memory lane. The future, who knows when that will roll around?

[Rosco]

I think your correct as We shift from a IRA to AG The price Jumps as our Dollars are on the way ?? will lock in at Tulving tomorrow I hope, An then ride it Down

an then back UP as We can wait this is not current bread money, but in for the long haul

[68Camaro]

In 1968, my father quit his job at a Shell refinery in Houston and, like his father and brother before him, became a plumber. I was almost 9 years old at the time. My dad had neither the inclination or patience to hire any adults to work with him so I became the plumber's helper. Six days a week in the summer, on Saturdays during the school year and many evenings after school, I rode his plumbing truck. Paid for a cheap car and college by working with my dad. The point is he had been watching the Fed for many years (yeah, just a dumb-a$$ plumber raised like a hillbilly in the Arkansas Ozarks interested in a fraudulent fractional reserve system, go figure) before he started his own business. So when I started working with him, he finally had a willing (albeit a somewhat captive) listener. He tried to talk to his older brothers and friends about the deception, but they thought he was crazy. Poor as he and my mom were, starting in 1965, they saved every silver dime and quarter they got in change. All his friends would even trade him for face value if they had any. My dad was a laughing stock back then.

And now he's 80, heart starting to give out, bladder too, and all his predictions about the coming Big Crash that he made back in the 60s and 70s have still not happened. Nonetheless, he's still going to be right, someday. What he thinks, and, by extension, what I think is that the Euro will fall apart, even with IMF (meaning your tax dollars) support. When that happens the flight-to-safety will temporarily cause the US dollar to rise and all of the physical longs here will get another sick feeling in our stomachs like: How can the fiat currency of Europe crash and PMs fall?

But the dollar's stardom won't last. The fundamentals aren't there. And then we're looking at a single currency for the world because that's what the elites have had planned for us peons for eons. PMs, if you can use them, will be our treasure and worth many multiples of what we price them at now.

Sorry for the trip down memory lane. The future, who knows when that will roll around?

Great story! Good for him!

[neilgin1]

In 1968, my father quit his job at a Shell refinery in Houston and, like his father and brother before him, became a plumber. I was almost 9 years old at the time. My dad had neither the inclination or patience to hire any adults to work with him so I became the plumber's helper. Six days a week in the summer, on Saturdays during the school year and many evenings after school, I rode his plumbing truck. Paid for a cheap car and college by working with my dad. The point is he had been watching the Fed for many years (yeah, just a dumb-a$$ plumber raised like a hillbilly in the Arkansas Ozarks interested in a fraudulent fractional reserve system, go figure) before he started his own business. So when I started working with him, he finally had a willing (albeit a somewhat captive) listener. He tried to talk to his older brothers and friends about the deception, but they thought he was crazy. Poor as he and my mom were, starting in 1965, they saved every silver dime and quarter they got in change. All his friends would even trade him for face value if they had any. My dad was a laughing stock back then.

And now he's 80, heart starting to give out, bladder too, and all his predictions about the coming Big Crash that he made back in the 60s and 70s have still not happened. Nonetheless, he's still going to be right, someday. What he thinks, and, by extension, what I think is that the Euro will fall apart, even with IMF (meaning your tax dollars) support. When that happens the flight-to-safety will temporarily cause the US dollar to rise and all of the physical longs here will get another sick feeling in our stomachs like: How can the fiat currency of Europe crash and PMs fall?

But the dollar's stardom won't last. The fundamentals aren't there. And then we're looking at a single currency for the world because that's what the elites have had planned for us peons for eons. PMs, if you can use them, will be our treasure and worth many multiples of what we price them at now.

Sorry for the trip down memory lane. The future, who knows when that will roll around?

Shinn-san, "sorry"?....i love that story, my high respect for you has trebled, reading. Your Dad is the kind of the guy that makes this country great, i just pray that he has no fear, the coming storm, that he prepared his boy well. may he know the Name of the Lord, and the comfort recieved from this Knowledge. i'm still working on that thing, just reading everything i can get my mitts on....next post, i want to give my view, which aint much. buds, neil

[neilgin1]

i dont know. the day to day stuff that is. Europe's a trainwreck, we know that. BAC's a zombie, we know that. Obama's reelection is a done deal, i KNOW that, coz Barry, the little community organizer who could, has learned to say "yes" to the right people, that's how he differs from Carter. Ole Jimmy, tried to take on the national security state and got rolled, you dont mess with the national security state, why you think Ron Paul isnt getting the traction he deserves?....coz they know he'll shut down half the bases, and cut DoD budget in half.

i think, that the dollar trades high at the point of a spear. Trash talk the dollar?, you're going to have a bad day, courtesy of either the 82nd Airborne Div, or a bunch of surprisely fit white guys, wearing shades, packing G3's, and carrying knapsacks FULL of neatly wrapped, freshly printed Benjy's, ready to hand out to whatever arab fonkball, wants to put on an Armani suit, and order about a bunch of other arab fonkballs ready to mount 20 mike-mike's welding to the bed of a new toyota truck...oh yeh, and they also get those cool shades too, its the new look. Democracy is pretty neat, huh?

so, either the EU tanks, or BAC tanks, PM's go down, and like Shinn says the dollar stays hard...for a spell. in silver, the big number is 44 dollars, we trade north of that, 50 is going to be like soft butter. But something big bad and ugly is going to go down, cant put my finger on it, but its got to be something, that gets the people "rallying around our President.....in this time of national crisis"..end quote. Something scripted and shocking like a bad hollywood film. Thats why i implore anyone who CAN...get out of the cities, as soon as humanly and Divinely possible...use part of your stack, if you got it, thats what its there for....wood, water, protein and land, THATS the trade of the millenium...(well also you can buy Dec 12 Minneapolis wheat and sell Dec 12 KC wheat against it. Minn Dec 12 is trading a mere 16 cents over KC Dec 12...if you're patient, you'll be cashing out with Minn Dec 12 wheat ONE DOLLAR to two dollars over KC Dec 12 wheat, that would be a 5k to 10k profit PER CAR, but only do it, if you can got the FRN's AND can stand risk, but just track it anyway, that doesnt cost a dime, but if goes to where i think it will, you'll be kicking yourselves. That said, wheat futures are not for the faint of heart or undercapitalized, and i bear NO liability should any of you get cratered.) stay strong guys, whats the worst they can do? kill us? n.

[neilgin1]

by disclosure, btw, i dont trade futures, no mo, i cant take the risk, my heart will explode like an M-80, so that MWZ12/KCWZ12 spread i suggested, i dont have on. because i dont want to be married to a screen, and i like sleeping peacefully at night. lol....but its a nice vehicle for those who got risk capital and some balls. i got spayed and neutered a while back, thats why my brother has named my place "Broke Dick Mountain"....hey, if the shoe fits......

[shinnosuke]

Following up on neil's theme of preparation, my dad just sent me this:

When Revolutions Roll Out Of Control

October 26, 2011 by John Myers

UPI

Occupy Oakland protesters camped out in front of City Hall in Oakland, Calif.

This is the autumn of our discontent. I believe something sinister is coming down the pipe. Week after week of demonstrations around the world could be a harbinger of revolt and even mass violence.

I am in the second half-century of my life. All my life, I followed the news because I was at the side of my father, a writer and publisher whose job was to predict investment trends. Not once in all these decades have I seen such troubled times, and that includes my memories of the 1960s.

I suspect a spark has been struck and we are all headed down a very destructive path, one that will not only destroy wealth through economic deflation but something worse: a period of violence wrought by tough times and widespread anger.

It will be up to historians to decide if the genesis of economic and social implosion began with the crash of 2008, the discontent that followed in Europe, or recent events — the mass protests that have been visited on major centers from Wall Street to Warsaw, Poland.

What is certain is that Western democracies are reaping what they sowed, especially in the United States. What began as a small group of protesters in Manhattan’s financial district has grown steadily. It now encompasses student groups, labor unions and, in some cases, the dregs of society.

The protesters in the United States call themselves “the 99 percent.” They say they represent the vast numbers of Americans struggling to pay their bills, while the income gap between the rich and the middle class widens. Throughout the ages, we have seen how small protests can turn into whirlwinds of violence.

Henry Ford said, “History is bunk.” I am convinced that the good and evil that have been expressed throughout the ages reside in today’s world. The worst evils are committed by “the crowd.” It is “the crowd” that rolls forward like a hand grenade with its pin set to slip out any second. It is “the crowd” that created the bloody madness that was the French Revolution.

The similarities between those events that lead to The Terror in France and what is occurring in the citadels of today’s civilization should not be ignored. Key to anticipating the future is an understanding of the past.

Like the United States that fought both the Cold War and decade-long wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, 18th century France spent decades fighting wars it could not afford. This overextended King Louis XVI’s treasury. Rather than taxing the elite of French society in an attempt to make up the imbalance, the king taxed the commoners who faced higher inflation as well as greater demands from the crown. The Bourbon Dynasty, which had persisted for 500 years, was forced to make compromises to the French people in 1789 because masses of unemployed people drifted toward urban centers where they were stirred into a frenzy.

In 1781 Louis approved a new council. A year later, the monarchy was abolished. However, that did not save the king’s head or the head of his wife, Marie Antoinette.

France had all the ingredients for revolt that we see in the United States. It had a leader who was impotent, and an economic crisis that could not be corrected. Only the wealthy elite were protected from the ravages of rising taxes and higher inflation.

One final link: The Court of King Louis XVI was hamstrung when it came to the nation’s energy needs. Coal was in short supply in France and had to be imported at great expense from other countries, many of which were seeking France’s ruination. It sounds much like America’s reliance on Arab oil today.

Wars were crucial in the demise of Bourbon France. In his book, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, famous historian Paul Kennedy writes:


The cost of a sixteenth-century war could be measured in millions of pounds; by the late-seventeenth century, it had risen to tens of millions of pounds; and at the close of the Napoleonic War the outgoings of the major combatants occasionally reached a hundred million pounds a year.

Kennedy adds that, “the link between national bankruptcy and revolution was all too clear.”

No sooner had I read this than I watched Republican presidential candidate Representative Ron Paul, R-Texas, on CNN. According to Paul, military expenditures have cost the United States $4 trillion over the past decade.

The Second American Revolution

I do not believe that what is going on today around Wall Street is what Thomas Jefferson had in mind when he wrote in a letter to James Madison on Jan. 30, 1787, in reference to Shay’s Rebellion: “I hold it that a little rebellion, now and then, is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical.”

I don’t think we are facing a little rebellion. All rebellions start small; but some, like the one France experienced and what we may have to endure, could be earth-shattering.

The reasons are simple: too much debt and too little economic growth. Consider the facts:
■The U.S. unemployment rate stands above 9 percent. The true unemployment rate, which takes into account people who have given up looking for work, is close to 17 percent.
■For the past decade, U.S. stock indexes have been flat. Accounting for inflation, they have actually declined. Many Americans have lost a lifetime of savings.
■The U.S. money supply has grown threefold in the past three years. If the investment banks ever stop collecting bonuses and lend this money, it will trigger double-digit inflation; an event which will make Americans even more angry.
■Since the stock indexes peaked in 2007, real income for Americans has dropped 10 percent. Despite the addition of trillions of new dollars courtesy of the Federal Reserve, many Americans are undergoing the greatest loss of wealth since the Great Depression.

The U.S. and other Western democracies stand at a precipice. It is a situation that is sending citizens to the streets in protest. Economic collapses and protests can quickly spill over with violence.

In case you think I am exaggerating the danger, consider these recent words from columnist Frank Miele of Daily Inter Lake:


The Russian Revolution (which coincidentally was another October Revolution) started out with slogans and protests, too, just like “Occupy Wall Street.” Of course, life in 1917 Petrograd was a lot harder and a lot more desperate than it is today in Philadelphia or New York — but the ruffians on the streets don’t care about that because they don’t study history. If they did, they might be more apt to follow the Russian example and overthrow Obama’s czars who have imposed absurd and unwieldy regulations on banking and business instead of trying to destroy the capitalists who actually have the capacity to create wealth — and jobs.

Action to take: I usually sign off suggesting you buy precious metals or a resource stock that looks good. This week, I urge you to consider what you will do if you and your family are beset by an emergency. In that case, Krugerrand gold or American Silver Eagle coins will not be of much use. I suggest you store lots of fresh water, canned foods, guns and ammunition. I hope I am dead wrong, but these items may be critical. In 30 years, I have never written such extreme advice. However, we may be entering the most extreme period of our lifetimes.

Yours in good times and bad,

–John Myers
Editor, Myers’ Energy & Gold Report

[url]www.personalliberty.com/conservative-politics/government/when-revolutions-roll-out-of-control/?eiid=&rmid=2011_10_26_PLA_[P11401777]&rrid=378640073[/url]

[beauanderos]

Good article!! Thanks for posting, Doug. It's easy at times... when we all get caught up in the frenzy of counting windfall profits or bemoaning paper losses due to the most recent downdraft... to overlook that preparedness entails much more than merely stacking silver and gold. You need to be able to defend what you've amassed... and not starve while doing so. Guns, groceries, and gold... as they say. Invest in lead... and plan to share it someday with those who did not have your foresight

[shinnosuke]

Lead...I have never shot anybody. Don't plan to. Don't look forward to being in a situation where I would need to. But if I live through such a situation, I will have done the shooting because somebody had forfeited their life while trying to hurt or steal from my family.

Would someone more capable than me please steer the thread back to the original topic?

[Mossy]

The subject of revolution is worth discussing all by it's self.

We have a combination of political unrest and economic collapse. They will feed off each other. Yes, I have firearms and ammo, and a fishing pole and canoe.

[neilgin1]

Lead...I have never shot anybody. Don't plan to. Don't look forward to being in a situation where I would need to. But if I live through such a situation, I will have done the shooting because somebody had forfeited their life while trying to hurt or steal from my family.

Would someone more capable than me please steer the thread back to the original topic?

Shin-san, i'll try and steer it back in a second, God forbid you we ever find yourselve's in a situation where lethal force is required. Sometimes good people have to do bad things, but i think a person has to turn off the hot water tap in their heart, and turn the cold water on, in a millisecond. Turn from "what would Jesus do", to "what King David did", which was a 16 year old boy, soon to be king, chopping the head off a deranged pyschopathic philisitine behemoth. Its hard to do, remain ice cold, when everyone is freaking out.

ok, back on topic, sort of, i think i referenced a scripted big bad ugly event coming to a mall near you, check out what they just dumped onto the NY Times, BIG MAGAZINE HEADLINE........"How Ready Are We for Bioterrorism?"

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/30/magaz ... wanted=all

i'm not trying to scare, because its so obvious, it almost would be laughable, there are some dark hearted sonsabitches out there, and God only knows whose "side" they're on......

[JJM]

If the Euro fails, and it will at some point, it will strengthen the dollar. That won't last forever though. But when it does, it will be a good buying time for PM's, as they will go on sale once again. When this happesn, I believe silver will be marked down much further than gold will.

This would be a good season for the Euro to fail, they can paper over Dexia and Greece, while taking care of the other PIIGS waiting in the wings, with one swoop.

I don't think we'll see normal PM behavior this fall/winter/spring. Traditionally these are strong months, looks like we'll get the inverse (in a way) of 2010 when PM's did well in the summer (traditionally their off months).

We need hardcore deflation here in the U.S. so Helicoptor Ben can eventually hyperinflate his way out of the U.S. debt mess. If the Euro fails, we'll get this.

PS. I don't believe the failure of the Euro will cause runs on the banks here in the U.S. I do believe we'll relive 2008 in some fashion as a result though. Unsure if it will be slightly better or a whole lot worse though...

[NHsorter]

I guess I will refine what I originally posted. When the Euro goes down, I expect ramifications over here as well. This will clearly screw up global finance and I have been hearing that it could take down some of our banks as well. If that happens or not, say we do relive 2008 in a way... where should we put our money ahead of this event? If this strengthens the dollar and lowers silver, then should I just be holding cash waiting for commodities to plummit and then go on a buying spree? It seems like everyone is convinced that the Euro failing will result in the rise of the dollar, but would it not also make sense if we saw PM's go UP because of it. Don't people realize that we have problems just like they do. None of this is real money.

Anyway, Don't worry about the thread taking a different course - all of this is good info and I enjoy the conversation - wherever it goes.

[Tourney64]

Euro fails, then short term- dollar will increase, stock market will fall (all European sales for multinationals will be at a lower value vs. dollar. Gold will fall since Europeans will be liquidating their gold to buy goods with the only valid currency. Long term, dollar will fail also.

[barrytrot]

Euro fails, then short term- dollar will increase, stock market will fall (all European sales for multinationals will be at a lower value vs. dollar. Gold will fall since Europeans will be liquidating their gold to buy goods with the only valid currency. Long term, dollar will fail also.

Actually gold will likely not fall unless you think the European banks will start liquidating. Individuals in Europe won't make a blip on the radar.

And, of course, the large percentage of "panic" will give a fair amount of boost to gold.

[frugalcanuck]

Euro fails, then short term- dollar will increase, stock market will fall (all European sales for multinationals will be at a lower value vs. dollar. Gold will fall since Europeans will be liquidating their gold to buy goods with the only valid currency. Long term, dollar will fail also.

Actually gold will likely not fall unless you think the European banks will start liquidating. Individuals in Europe won't make a blip on the radar.

And, of course, the large percentage of "panic" will give a fair amount of boost to gold.

Gold will not fall. Gold will still be gold. The FRN will go up in relation to gold making it appear that gold has gone down. I have been waiting on the side with FRN since the issue of allowing more debt happened in the summer. I was thinking that the little panic will cause the FRN to go up compared to CDN$. Im still waiting