PM's... when would you sell out?

[Hawkeye]

That's a tough one. For me, other than a desperation situation, it would be for either a good amount of land or a good house (with land). Land is just about the only thing I would be willing to trade PMs for at this point. I doubt if I would ever trade my PMs for stock. I would (and do) buy some stock here and there, but I don't see myself giving up gold or silver for them.

[Mossy]

Barry,

I hope you are right, but I have my doubts. A collapse in the dollar will be unprecedented and would most-likely take the other fiat currencies with it. So then what will be the measure of value? Gold and silver? Perhaps, but that system may take time to set up and then gain the confidence of investors. I fear that the national and international economies will be too unstable to support efficient capital markets on a large scale. As you say there will be going concerns that provide investment opportunities, but they will be local.

Well, any particular person dying is "unprecedented" considering he is real unlikely to have done it before.

But, "people in general" or "currencies in general"? There is historic precedent.

[TXBullion]

If there was an opportunity that look mored promising, ie; new business venture, income producing asset, and so on

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Without going into the details too much, here's my plan:

When gold=DOW, sell gold, buy stocks
When 500oz of silver = median house price, sell silver, buy real estate.

Thoughts, suggestions, your own plans?

Is that you Mike Maloney?

[theo]

Barry,

I hope you are right, but I have my doubts. A collapse in the dollar will be unprecedented and would most-likely take the other fiat currencies with it. So then what will be the measure of value? Gold and silver? Perhaps, but that system may take time to set up and then gain the confidence of investors. I fear that the national and international economies will be too unstable to support efficient capital markets on a large scale. As you say there will be going concerns that provide investment opportunities, but they will be local.

Well, any particular person dying is "unprecedented" considering he is real unlikely to have done it before.

But, "people in general" or "currencies in general"? There is historic precedent.

I don't really get your point about people dying And what exactly would be the historical precendent be for the collapse of a reserve currency (the U.S. dollar)?

[ardorlan]

I would totally buy real estate for 500oz of silver is equal to median house price.
in fact I am more on the boat of when 1,500oz of silver is equal to the median house price.

[neilgin1]

I would totally buy real estate for 500oz of silver is equal to median house price.
in fact I am more on the boat of when 1,500oz of silver is equal to the median house price.

"real estate"?....not so much, but if you got a 750 lb steer, i got two ASE's for you, and if you got 30 acres of bottomland, half wooded, half pasture, i'll throw in 18 more, THATS when i trade. not before. but i'm just crazy, a lunatic. Dont pay me no mind. (lol) its going to come down to that, watch.

[Mossy]

But, "people in general" or "currencies in general"? There is historic precedent.

I don't really get your point about people dying And what exactly would be the historical precendent be for the collapse of a reserve currency (the U.S. dollar)?

People and paper money both die. The first "reserve currency" on record was invented by the Chinese about 5000 years ago, if I recall the post correctly. It died because the people "printing" the money (or making the clay chits, or whatever) decided printing for more than they had was harmless. And it was. For a while.

The present US dollar has never died before, sure. Big deal. The US had the "Continental" during the Revolutionary War (crashed) and the "greenback" during the Civil War (crashed), but the FRN has not. Yet.

[Delawhere Jack]

When prime interest rate gets back around 4.0-4.5%, I'll very seriously consider liquidating SOME pms.

Edit: Assuming that interest rates do not jump by orders of magnitude over a few days or hours.

Ah, yes...I remember the days of making 4-5% in online savings accounts (emigrantdirect, anyone?)..not that long ago either! (2005-2007). Well, we can pretty much forget about that, until at least mid-2013 (per the latest statement from the FED)....

The FED says that they control interest rates, and that may be the case, until it is no longer the case.

European banks need capital and the Chinese are not happy with our fiscal or monetary policies. Both parties hold substantial amounts of UST's.Treasury paper could at any time become the new "Don't Want" asset. At that point yeilds rise or the FED becomes the soul buyer of US debt... either way, game over. Glad I've got my pm's.

[theo]

But, "people in general" or "currencies in general"? There is historic precedent.

I don't really get your point about people dying And what exactly would be the historical precendent be for the collapse of a reserve currency (the U.S. dollar)?

People and paper money both die. The first "reserve currency" on record was invented by the Chinese about 5000 years ago, if I recall the post correctly. It died because the people "printing" the money (or making the clay chits, or whatever) decided printing for more than they had was harmless. And it was. For a while.

The present US dollar has never died before, sure. Big deal. The US had the "Continental" during the Revolutionary War (crashed) and the "greenback" during the Civil War (crashed), but the FRN has not. Yet.

Interesting facts! The Chinese might have had a regional reserve currency, but definately not global. I think the debasement of coins during the later Roman Empire may be another example; also France had two bouts of hyperinflation in the 18th century. I used the term "unprecedented" because a dollar collapse would impact the majority (90%+) of the global population, as it would take almost all other fiat currencies with it. I don't believe such a claim could be made about any other currency collapse, including the Romans, French or the Chinese.

I think the first casualty in a collapse will be the global system itself. Without a stable, highly liquid reserve currency like the dollar, global trade would probably be cut by something like 90%. Gold is ultimate answer of course, but transfering physical gold/silver to settle contracts in another continent will likely be cumbersome and it may be a generation or more before we start trusting paper gold and silver. Local means of production (with in 5 to 10 miles) will be the most lucretive investments. To steal Nielgin1's line.

"when it takes a wheelbarrow full of FRN's to buy a loaf of bread....then i buy the bakery."

[Mossy]

Death and currency collapse scale up very well.

[needler420]

500 an ounce silver?

That's just stupid talk to me. If silver went that high with in the next few years inflation would be right behind it so over all you'd be in a horrible position. The only advantage you'd have is one upping anyone that you have more precious metals then them. Inflation would still one up you though.


The sad thing is that is very possible. Not that Id want it to go that way though. Society is still better off dependent on the federal reserve.


If precious metals went that high the investors would become the 1% corporations and the 99% of the regular joes who never strayed away from the federal reserve would be let with their finger in their @$$.

You can't expect to have $500 silver yet have the same purchasing power with federal reserve notes as we do now with 500 silver. It will trade out and the dollar with devalue itself.

[OneBiteAtATime]

If my child needs food, I'll trade. If my child needs shoes, I'll trade. If my child needs warmth, I'll trade.

Till then, I'll hold.

[Delawhere Jack]

500 an ounce silver?

That's just stupid talk to me. If silver went that high with in the next few years inflation would be right behind it so over all you'd be in a horrible position. The only advantage you'd have is one upping anyone that you have more precious metals then them. Inflation would still one up you though.


The sad thing is that is very possible. Not that Id want it to go that way though. Society is still better off dependent on the federal reserve.


If precious metals went that high the investors would become the 1% corporations and the 99% of the regular joes who never strayed away from the federal reserve would be let with their finger in their @$$.

You can't expect to have $500 silver yet have the same purchasing power with federal reserve notes as we do now with 500 silver. It will trade out and the dollar with devalue itself.

"Regular Joes" get ground into hamburger. It's a theme that repeats itself over and over throughout history. Sucks to be them.

[NickelExpress]

if it 70 with current FRN buying power i would probably cash out. That would give me a good down payment on a rental and pay for a large chunk of a 2 year trip around the world.

[exbingoaddict]

Market Harmony is making some very good points. Silver and gold are not the end all be all in wealth holding. An eye should be kept on the equity, bond, and real estate markets.

[aristobolus]

Think Counter Intuitive...

[wbeck]

I never intend to sell out all my silver or gold. I plan to keep a certain percentage of my net worth in PMs until I die. At some point I'd like to figure out a good, low effort, way to generate some income while still holding. Either "playing" the market a bit(read trying to time purchases wisely), or perhaps turning over my stash by doing some proper buying under market/selling on the side.

That all said, I'm a business owner. I plan on buying more businesses. If at any time I have a great deal on the table, and a lack of cash, with no other way to get the cash... I would temporarily get rid of some, possibly all, if world events didn't seem ready to crash any second (Read I thought I have enough time to re-up on PMs). Unless you're actively dealing in silver, or playing the market wisely (which I think is near impossible to do with less than a few year timeline) PMs really aren't the best investment. They are solid as the rock of Gibraltar though, which is why it's always good to have some around. Way I see it if I have a good chunk in PMs when the SHTF, they will buy me out of any short term cash issues I might be having on my main business or any other investments, perhaps with enough left over to take advantage of the turmoil!

[inflationhawk]

After inflation spikes, we'll eventually get a Volker like Fed chairman. When he spikes interest rates up to kill it off, I'll sell some PMs and buy treasuries or even CDs. The return on treasuries and CDs will outpace the rate of dollar value erosian in order to kill inflation for a period of time, that's the time to take advantage. Anyone who got a 10 year CD in the early 1980s with a 13 or 15% plus interest rate was living well and pretty happy for the next several years.

[neilgin1]

500 an ounce silver?

That's just stupid talk to me. If silver went that high with in the next few years inflation would be right behind it so over all you'd be in a horrible position.

friend, not all of us, i can take a 15 to 30 minute tractor ride, and within that radius, there are two steers, two feeder calves, two horses, one wagon, and enough feed and bales for the whole lot, AND i got the tradeables to do it. You might counter with, "oh they wont want your coin"....wanna bet? within a FIVE minute tractor (or wagon ride) i got as many apples as i can pick, and grind into cider, hard or soft, corn for days, grind that right into meal, and unlimited fresh water...and if the lights go out, no worries there either, AND if anyone twigs out, and thinks they're in the Mad Max movie, there's plenty good ole boys up here, we wouldnt think twice about clearing up their confusion, which is why i IMPLORE any of my bro's here, including you dear friend, GET OUT OF THE CITIES AND SUBURBS as soon as possible. That should be priority one, and if thats 'stupid talk', i love you in the Lord anyway, and will pray for you, i mean that, n.

[needler420]

Sorry to say my mentality isn't apocalyptic/survivalist mentality that permeates these precious metals forums.

My precious metals is for investment purposes only. Much like the regular joes invested in bonds/cds when interest rates were good and the federal reserve dependable. Course that isn't the case now which left many flcoking to precious metals or stock. I mean what would you rather have 1% interest in a savings account. Or take some risk to make even bigger.

Back to you're survival SHTF mentality if you want to get real talk with that then its all going to be a matter of physical dominace. The guy who is stronger,faster and more physically able is going to be on top.

If you're 40+ years old and you can't hop a 6 foot fence then the first 20 year old that crosses paths with you is going to gun you down with his AR-15. If you have wife and kids your even more vulnerable. You can only fight up in till the point you can.

The 2nd a loved one enters the scene you're at the mercy of whatever that person wants. Trust me smart one you're going to live a much more enjoyable life depending on the federal reserve and treasaury.


When you start talking about tractors and fields and fruits and picking I just LMAO. The first thought I get is my moms quarter million dollar home in GA yet can exploit the system and collect food stamps because its not bassed off of assests but income.

Don't get me wrong now any preparedness is better then none that's a given. I'm just saying much like anything else there comes a point where you take it over board. Its usually at that point when society starts calling you cuckoo.


The day that I'm preparing for a SHTF scenario ill invest my purchasing powers in a hazmat/radiation suit and supplies that will make a real difference. Oxygen tanks etc.

[Market Harmony]

needler, I'm directing this message towards you, but I think it applies to us all. We are all respectful here. Our ideas are all relatively in line. And deviations from this line are never far off. We are all smart and we all have skin in this game of PM or BM vs the USD. Attacking one another with derogatory language will not advance a conversation in the direction which you might expect it to go. Instead, it becomes a perceived attack... especially when you discuss mentality or physical prowess. Please, let's keep in mind that even though you are alone when you type messages, you are in a crowd when you hit the send button. What you write impacts the reader, and your most profound impact will come when you mutually respect each other and offer your own viewpoint in a non-offensive manner. Being direct and honest will help you. Being derisive will hurt you.

Based on some of the responses, I'm not quite sure the intent of my message is being absorbed. We make trade-offs all the time. We trade our time and sweat for money. We trade our money for goods. We trade our goods for money, which we then trade for other goods. At some point, each of us make the decision that one tradeoff is better than another. You might decide to take the day off to go skiing, or trade in that old car for a newer one, etc. What it comes down to is "value" Value is perceived and never realized immediately. It starts as a thought and culminates in a trade. That's what I'm trying to accomplish here.

The cumulative thoughts of this wonderful group of individuals at realcent, regarding a good time to trade PM's for something else, is more valuable than if one individual claims to know exactly when that time or trade will be. This thread is an idea generator.

So, let's get back on track. What do you think a good trade off ratio will be... for example: How many ounces of silver or gold would you trade for so many months of food? silver to a vehicle? gold to land? etc. etc.

[needler420]

There wasn't one derogatory remark directed toward anyone in my post.

He gave his opinion on what will come out on top in a SHTF scene and I gave my opinion which is physical dominance.
To say my opinion on physical dominace and mentality is a attack on others is an attack on me. You're saying you're opinion is right and that to base mine on mentality or physical prowess is not entitled is an attack on me.

From the sound of it some of you are scared by physical domiance. If you're smart you'd know it means more then anything in a SHTF. That is what it would be civil chaos with no laws. Not good morning sir can I please buy one of your apples with my piece of silver. Granted there will be some trading like that but there will also be taking. Trading and taking go hand in hand in a SHTF scene. You'd think for the words that SHTF means it be more common sense.

I mean your using physical prowess and SHTF in the same sentence. Do do you think in a SHTF case that criminal charges are going to get filed. Or are you so confident that you know you be the better shooter?

There are 1 billion variables to SHTF scene.

Not just I have guns and gold and stored food I'm good.

Which my point was you can grow a apple tree and sit and guard the fruits as easy as someone can come an take your apples. Its really a 50/50 who gets the apple. You only own the tree when you can call 911 if someone is trying to take it. Other wise its like making a bet at a casino. You're just crossing fingers. The guys with the advanatge is the card counters and physical able people.

The best fitting words for "SHTF" saying that everyone uses should be followed by the old saying survival of the fittest. Which basically means 40+ years of age no point in even trying. Yes that will include my parents and grandparents. Same for the young and old.

[Treetop]

physical dominance, is far from the only type.... i wrote a long detailed post explaining various aspects and why your point wont turn out well in the real world... But I was sharing to much, and you will find out the hard way I guess. should it come to that... I will say however that youd be wise not to eat apples you find where I am. I wont need them, and they will be waiting for folks just like you.

[needler420]

physical dominance, is far from the only type.... i wrote a long detailed post explaining various aspects and why your point wont turn out well in the real world... But I was sharing to much, and you will find out the hard way I guess. should it come to that... I will say however that youd be wise not to eat apples you find where I am. I wont need them, and they will be waiting for folks just like you.

Folks like me aren't stupid. As I said in a SHTF scene there are too many variables to prepare for. There is no saying who one ups who. Putting bear traps around your apple trees reminds me of people who boobey trap their home and it ends up being used against their own loved ones stead of said intentions. Specially if we never get to that SHTF scene in our life time.

You're thinking morals and ethics in you're mentality. In a SHTF scene someone who is starving isn't going to question their morals or ethics its nature taking place to eat.


If I was going to prepare it be against our trillion dollar debt to China. Which is why I said Id rather have a hazmat suit vs some food stored.