Imminent Silver Correction

[beauanderos]

Aloha friends. My apologies that I am not able to be here more to chat with friends. Appreciate the kind remarks. It would seem that the same conditions exist as posted earlier. A massive deleveraging event seems to be building as now the ECB is cutting rates as they previously vowed not to. Risk on demand is drying up like cement. Supply and USD tidal shift in the works. Perhaps I'll be 100% wrong. The future is always unknowable. Mind your risk.

Cheers!
J

Can you clarify what is "risk on demand"? I have not heard that before and is intriguing

The "non-hyperinflationary scenario" driven gold and silver bullish camps are sometimes characterized as "risk trades," meaning that parties given to beliefs that global fiat currency will continue depreciationary trends will continue to do so given the continuing influence of world events supportive of such a stance. If things unravel, PM's would trend upwards, absent that, they could fall to previous levels of support. When the risk trades dry up, those hedgies or sovereign wealth funds that had been chasing the latest hot trend move on, leaving prices to collapse in the sudden vacuum.

[shinnosuke]

Aloha friends. My apologies that I am not able to be here more to chat with friends. Appreciate the kind remarks. It would seem that the same conditions exist as posted earlier. A massive deleveraging event seems to be building as now the ECB is cutting rates as they previously vowed not to. Risk on demand is drying up like cement. Supply and USD tidal shift in the works. Perhaps I'll be 100% wrong. The future is always unknowable. Mind your risk.

Cheers!
J

Can you clarify what is "risk on demand"? I have not heard that before and is intriguing

If economies are shrinking, demand for commodities will fall. If this happens at the same time that the Euro is dropping (due to rate cuts, which were not expected), the dollar will rise, perhaps spectacularly. This combination of factors could cause the price of silver to fall considerably and lead to the silver correction mentioned in the title of this thread. It's amazing to me that 120 some odd posts later this thread is still sticking to the original post theme.

JFF, don't be a stranger.

[68Camaro]

The reason the thread still exists is that there will always be an imminent silver correction, and many camps can be correct, depending on your timeline. Both long-term bulls and short-term bears could be correct, within their context. If you are actively trading PM related items this risk on/risk off stuff matters. If you're a long-term buyer/stacker, it matters very little.

[shinnosuke]

The reason the thread still exists is that there will always be an imminent silver correction, and many camps can be correct, depending on your timeline. Both long-term bulls and short-term bears could be correct, within their context. If you are actively trading PM related items this risk on/risk off stuff matters. If you're a long-term buyer/stacker, it matters very little.

True, but if I have some FRNs to burn on silver purchases and have credible data that says the price could fall tomorrow, I will likely delay my purchase. So this info is relevant to me and I never plan on trading anything. (You can check my feedback thread and see that nobody ever bought anything from me. Same is true on bullion stacker) I'm waiting for the day when silver becomes money again and I just spend it (with purchasing power greatly enhanced over the current fiat, of course).

But besides that, most threads do get hijacked and end up discussing dust bunnies under the beds of famous people in medieval Poland, for example.

[68Camaro]

I understand what you're saying, and it is good to try to optmize, but don't overthink it. So, in this context we're talking about literal/physical delivery, not ETFs, etc.

Ok - here's what you need to hear. Yes, the price of silver will go down. There - that make you feel better? Is that all you need to know? No. Even if I could be 100% certain on that (and I'm not), I would still have to deal with these other questions:

When? I don't know.

How much? I don't know.

Will the dip be of sufficient magnitude and duration that it will actually translate to an attainable change in the buying price of physical for me personally? I don't know.

Will there be real silver of right type (not 1000 oz bars sitting in London) available to easily and legally buy, when it does go down? I don't know.

So - those extra questions complicate things a bit...

Keep in mind that those that try to overthink the market often end up sitting by the sidelines, missing the boat. You can buy now at $34, possibly missing a dip to $23, and when that happens you can kick yourself. Blast, I could have bought at $23, you tell yourself. (Well, I could've/should've/would've bought at lot more at $12 or $18, and I didn't - gotta put that in the past.) So you don't buy at $34. You wait. It dips back to $28, ah, it's getting tempting, but it happens overnight, on a Sunday, in the Far East. By Monday moring it's back up to $30, so you wait. This type of things keeps up. Next thing you know it's at $75 and going to the moon, you've not bought anything. Avoid that type of second-guessing. Just my 2 cents.

[Mossy]

Next thing you know it's at $75 and going to the moon, you've not bought anything. Avoid that type of second-guessing. Just my 2 cents.

Oh, man. I'm an expert at this.

[Jonflyfish]

Anticipating a wild Friday market. Let's see..

[Jonflyfish]

The reason the thread still exists is that there will always be an imminent silver correction, and many camps can be correct, depending on your timeline. Both long-term bulls and short-term bears could be correct, within their context. If you are actively trading PM related items this risk on/risk off stuff matters. If you're a long-term buyer/stacker, it matters very little.

Feel free to comment anytime. You could even see the opposite scenario that you posted. Short term bulls correct and long term bears just the same.

Cheers.

[pennypicker]

I understand what you're saying, and it is good to try to optmize, but don't overthink it. So, in this context we're talking about literal/physical delivery, not ETFs, etc.

Ok - here's what you need to hear. Yes, the price of silver will go down. There - that make you feel better? Is that all you need to know? No. Even if I could be 100% certain on that (and I'm not), I would still have to deal with these other questions:

When? I don't know.

How much? I don't know.

Will the dip be of sufficient magnitude and duration that it will actually translate to an attainable change in the buying price of physical for me personally? I don't know.

Will there be real silver of right type (not 1000 oz bars sitting in London) available to easily and legally buy, when it does go down? I don't know.

So - those extra questions complicate things a bit...

Keep in mind that those that try to overthink the market often end up sitting by the sidelines, missing the boat. You can buy now at $34, possibly missing a dip to $23, and when that happens you can kick yourself. Blast, I could have bought at $23, you tell yourself. (Well, I could've/should've/would've bought at lot more at $12 or $18, and I didn't - gotta put that in the past.) So you don't buy at $34. You wait. It dips back to $28, ah, it's getting tempting, but it happens overnight, on a Sunday, in the Far East. By Monday moring it's back up to $30, so you wait. This type of things keeps up. Next thing you know it's at $75 and going to the moon, you've not bought anything. Avoid that type of second-guessing. Just my 2 cents.

Exactly why I enjoy reading 68camaro's posts. He's very level headed, straightforward and articulate--same goes for Neilgin1

[68Camaro]

The reason the thread still exists is that there will always be an imminent silver correction, and many camps can be correct, depending on your timeline. Both long-term bulls and short-term bears could be correct, within their context. If you are actively trading PM related items this risk on/risk off stuff matters. If you're a long-term buyer/stacker, it matters very little.

Feel free to comment anytime. You could even see the opposite scenario that you posted. Short term bulls correct and long term bears just the same.

Cheers.

Correct, anything is possible

[Jonflyfish]

There is an overwhelming majority of folks here who buy and hold physical. I get that. I'm in the same boat. All that needs to be posted for some is "buy whatever you can whenever you can at any price you can" because that is what they want to hear. However, it is fascinating to notice how many of them watch the daily fluctuation more than most watch their 401(k).
Hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable Friday.
Cheers.
JFF

[Thogey]

Man, that is so true. I get a real kick out of the 'market' discussion here.

Especially when so many of us distrust the market. But the market still drives the buying decisions.

A wise man told me " buy things when people want to sell, Sell things when people want to buy."

I love the feel of a bag full of silver. The cheaper the better.

[68Camaro]

Regardless of one's world-view, or how one feels about methods or philosophy of trading ups or downs, watching the global markets in concert with the world news for me has become a bit of a sick obsession, on which I have to enforce some control over myself or else I will overdo it. I liken it to watching a slow-motion train-wreck. It is horrifyingly fascinating.

[Jonflyfish]

Mind your risk.

Cheers,
JFF

[NHsorter]

Regardless of one's world-view, or how one feels about methods or philosophy of trading ups or downs, watching the global markets in concert with the world news for me has become a bit of a sick obsession, on which I have to enforce some control over myself or else I will overdo it. I liken it to watching a slow-motion train-wreck. It is horrifyingly fascinating.

Agreed. It's an ultra slow motion train wreck. Additionally, the sleeping masses are just hanging out on the train tracks completely unwilling to accept the fact that the train is actually coming at them.

[Jonflyfish]

Mind your risk.

Cheers,
JFF

+1

Cheers!

[morris14ccm]

JFF-do you think it would be wise to buy today or wait for tomorrow?

[Jonflyfish]

JFF-do you think it would be wise to buy today or wait for tomorrow?

Do you mean buying puts as a hedge?

[Jonflyfish]

Mind your risk.

Cheers,
JFF

+1

Cheers!

++1

[Jonflyfish]

The perils are great for the PM market. Warning flag is at full mast.
Cheers!

[SteelCityCopper]

The perils are great for the PM market. Warning flag is at full mast.
Cheers!

Good. Time to fatten up the personal stash for winter as long as the metal is available. That's the only thing that worries me about these drops.

[Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay]

The perils are great for the PM market. Warning flag is at full mast.
Cheers!

Does that mean a big drop in price? Or, a big price increase? What is happening to cause the shift? Could you explain just a little more for us lowly mortals?

[NHsorter]

I believe that he is saying that he is expecting a drop. I'll let him clarify though. Great, I hope it does, I have some money to burn on PM's now that I sold all of my 25th sets

[fb101]

I wonder if we're talking about the end of the PM bull or just a correction?

[Jonflyfish]

Disciplined hedge effectiveness.

Cheers