Monday

[neilgin1]

aint gonna be fun, Asia's down 2% already, in fact the whole week is going to be a living nightmare.

heck we might even see a 1000 point plus down in the Dow.

[Chief]

The DOW futures that I saw were down 100+. Could be a rough week for paper. Stack physical!

[Engineer]

heck we might even see a 1000 point plus down in the Dow.

2nd quarter is over, and the first day of the 3rd quarter showed a 275 point drop. It'll definitely be interesting to see what happens this week...

[HD-Daddy]

We are still in 2nd quarter. Just saying...

[Engineer]

We are still in 2nd quarter. Just saying...

You're right...its been one of those days for me. Woke up yesterday thinking it was Monday, and got confused as to why the bank's doors were locked.

Days and months get a little fuzzy for us old retired guys.

[HD-Daddy]

I had to think about it myself.

[beauanderos]

You can rest assured that no matter how hard the stock markets fall, that the vermin in charge of crushing metals (to avert another divergence disaster for them like Friday) will be back at his desk today, pressing buttons and punching numbers like a giant meth-addicted rat who knows his peepee will get whacked hard if he slips again today.

[Morsecode]

nice...

You can rest assured that no matter how hard the stock markets fall, that the vermin in charge of crushing metals (to avert another divergence disaster for them like Friday) will be back at his desk today, pressing buttons and punching numbers like a giant meth-addicted rat who knows his peepee will get whacked hard if he slips again today.

[mtldealer]

You can rest assured that no matter how hard the stock markets fall, that the vermin in charge of crushing metals (to avert another divergence disaster for them like Friday) will be back at his desk today, pressing buttons and punching numbers like a giant meth-addicted rat who knows his peepee will get whacked hard if he slips again today.

+1

[Jonflyfish]

For the week the DJIA is Up approx 300 points thus far. Is there a stop or reverse level for this call?
Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

For the week the DJIA is Up approx 300 points thus far. Is there a stop or reverse level for this call?
Cheers!

Looks like the DJIA will close up more than 400 points for the best weekly performance of the year.

Cheers!

[68Camaro]

True, but good luck with that... For those that can keep on top of it, more power to you all.

[Jonflyfish]

True, but good luck with that... For those that can keep on top of it, more power to you all.

Not sure what you mean. The market is what it is.

Cheers!

[68Camaro]

Ah, but the question is, what is it? It's not what it used to be.

From the article by Paul Craig Roberts, which Neil just linked elsewhere:

High-frequency trades now account for 70-80% of all equity trades.

This isn't the market of 30-40 years ago which I grew up trying to understand, which was based on providing real capital to industry, which created products, jobs, trade, etc.

What it has become is legalized gambling, with hidden rooms where unknown powers pull levers and turn knobs, and the small guy has no place in this. My equity investments have been minimal for more than 10 years now - I lost faith in the "market" as a market in the late 90s.

[Jonflyfish]

Ah, but the question is, what is it? It's not what it used to be.

From the article by Paul Craig Roberts, which Neil just linked elsewhere:

High-frequency trades now account for 70-80% of all equity trades.

This isn't the market of 30-40 years ago which I grew up trying to understand, which was based on providing real capital to industry, which created products, jobs, trade, etc.

What it has become is legalized gambling, with hidden rooms where unknown powers pull levers and turn knobs, and the small guy has no place in this. My equity investments have been minimal for more than 10 years now - I lost faith in the "market" as a market in the late 90s.

Human psychology never changes. The markets look the same. They are simply fractals that repeat in perpetuity. High frequency trading has only added to the liquidity pool. The only thing that has changed over the years is access to the markets. They are more accessible and efficient. Trading costs are nil compared to the days of old and trade execution is blistering fast. Surprised that you call the market of the late 90's something of "faith". Worldcom, Global Crossing, Enron etc etc. It only took a blind chicken to buy anything on the board. Ultimately, real earnings drive investment, as the dot bombs discovered. Short term anomolies are always mean reverting...something the "buy on (any) dip" crowd ultimately failed to understand.
I have faith that there is an open freely accesible market. THat's all I need and have ever needed in order to siphon profits out better than a Dyson vacuum with cyclone technology

Cheers!

[68Camaro]

Faith in the market of the 90s was misplaced - I lost faith in it then, not that faith in it was warranted then.

There has been a fundamental structural change in the market over the 20 years. It is not the same. It may appear the same in the fractals, but the underlying physics are (almost) completely different.

I'm not saying that one can't use the market. Just that it requires (I believe) a specialist to do so on a regular basis, and even then care is required.

[Jonflyfish]

Faith in the market of the 90s was misplaced - I lost faith in it then, not that faith in it was warranted then.

There has been a fundamental structural change in the market over the 20 years. It is not the same. It may appear the same in the fractals, but the underlying physics are (almost) completely different.

I'm not saying that one can't use the market. Just that it requires (I believe) a specialist to do so on a regular basis, and even then care is required.

Can you please elaborate on the underlying physics and how it is almost completely different and how it ultimately affects price?

Cheers!

[68Camaro]

No claims above of whether or not these differences affect price. (Though I tend to believe they do affect instantaneous changes in price - maybe not long-term average price.)

The modern sense is that price is largely a "device" that - if one uses this approach - is simply a baseline on which one places bets on whether it will rise or fall at a selected future date/time. It makes no matter in this approach whether a market is sound or not, whether a company details are sound or efficient or competitive or not.

That is a dramatically different sense than the historical view of the market, which is that one buys/sells part ownership in a capital production mechanism, and price is based on anticipated net worth and earnings in a capitalistic open marketplace. Over several centuries the original purposes of the market as a capital generation device has changed with succeeding generations, as additional "derivatives" from the original purpose have been added, then derivatives of the derivatives, then derivatives of the derivatives of the derivatives. To the point where in the past 20 years the original purpose of the market can barely be seen.

[tractorman]

For the week the DJIA is Up approx 300 points thus far. Is there a stop or reverse level for this call?
Cheers!

Looks like the DJIA will close up more than 400 points for the best weekly performance of the year.

Cheers!

Good call ... in hindsight ...

[neilgin1]

For the week the DJIA is Up approx 300 points thus far. Is there a stop or reverse level for this call?
Cheers!

yeh, first stop 6500 Dow, and then 1300 Dow.....gravity bud.

[Jonflyfish]

For the week the DJIA is Up approx 300 points thus far. Is there a stop or reverse level for this call?
Cheers!

Looks like the DJIA will close up more than 400 points for the best weekly performance of the year.

Cheers!

Good call ... in hindsight ...

Who said it was a call? It was simply an observation- a reality check about the best performing week of the year after many thought it would be the worst. That is all.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

For the week the DJIA is Up approx 300 points thus far. Is there a stop or reverse level for this call?
Cheers!

yeh, first stop 6500 Dow, and then 1300 Dow.....gravity bud.

I don't follow. My comments were in reference to the thread topic. You must be prognosticating about something different.

Cheers!

[neilgin1]

For the week the DJIA is Up approx 300 points thus far. Is there a stop or reverse level for this call?
Cheers!

yeh, first stop 6500 Dow, and then 1300 Dow.....gravity bud.

I don't follow. My comments were in reference to the thread topic. You must be prognosticating about something different.

Cheers!

gravity...in 1929, Dow Jones, 381, June of 1932, Dow Jones, 41.........2012, we seem to have a 13000 ceiling, a 90% markdown, 1300....the DJIA.

Now i read what you write, you eschew fundamentals, and extol technical analysis, which is good, its your way. i've noticed this in the human condition, people tend to fence in, various orthodoxies of thought, humor me, and let me give you an example from, say, Christianity, there's a tension, a fenceline, between what some call, "salvation Gospel" and "social Gospel", the first is concern with a soul "getting saved", the second is concerned with the fate of the poor, widows, orphans, the hungry. Great tension between the two, making them into two seperate ghettos of theo-thought, when in essence, its just the Gospel, one cant exist without the other.

Tech analysis says that we cannot possibly collalate all the fundamental analysis and charts/other tech indicators show the invisible footprint of the various markets, which is valid, but i know one can paint the tape, so its helpful to know the fundamentals of what passes off as dynamic capitalism, or mercantilism these days.

That Sunday night, i felt, intuitively, we might be in for a rough week, i was wrong. my 'ego' is not so fragile, or involved that i cant say those liberating words, "i was wrong". Doesnt bother me, in fact, in the context presented, i'm GLAD to be wrong, but there's too much duct tape, bailing wires and bayonets holding this thing together.

Too much harm has been done to the trust issue of the markets, i speak now of equities,. ETF's, etc...paper, same with the FRN's, or other various fiat currencies. For certain, on 10 Jun 2012, at 1130 GMT, they reign, and if you trade and accumulate FRN's various markets, good on ya, but sooner rather than later, we're going to hit a wall; and that is , the calories cant support the investments....its just like gravity. These guys can juggle balls all they want, but one day, they're going to miss a ball, and then another and so on.

Its why i prefer stacking as foundational, the bottom of a pyramid, as far as the layers up of that, this isnt the venue.

For all you know, i could be some whacked out centillionaire whiling a few ill spent hours away. If i was, i wouldnt be going anywhere near paper investments stored on a hard drive. no. Grain elevators, river barges, acres of planted grain, fresh water sources, phosphate veins, acres of hardwood and soft, meat, dairy, tank farms of stored natgas, the glut of fracking...you name it, the basics.

the big money, value, in the coming days will be in the basics.....especially clean drinking water, thats number one.

now forgive me if i seem to ....meander in my musings, its just my way. But i do hope you are successful in your endeavors, and no, i cant conclude with a "Cheers" to you, that's reserved for my mates in the UK, and as far as i know, you arent a subject of the Queen, may she live long, neil