PM Rally

[amalekidad]

JFF, who's lucky? The Ute's or Cougs? Me! I've been buying as much Ag as possible while it is (was) under $30/oz

[fb101]

How a bout a 30 second explanation of what the charts show. - is red accumulative and blue distributive?

[Jonflyfish]

Good discussion. There are fundamentals at many levels. I was mostly speaking of the overall economy - on whether to buy in or sell off, overall. But on fundamentals of specific stocks I don't often do this, but when I KNOW that a specific company is sound, and their business is sound no matter how the street is punishing it, I have a number of times bought after they've been crushed (or as they have been being crushed) no matter what the charts have said, and done very very well (I just have to be patient). That's one type of the fundamentals I mean.

For specific stocks, the fundamentals are only as sound as the truth you have. Much "truth", sadly, isn't very true. My mom, sadly, lost a ton of money in Worldcom and Enron the year she died at a time when she wasn't able to manage her stocks well. So, their fundamentals were NOT sound, no matter what lies they told- and there were signs of this, if you knew what to look for. Countrywide was, as you say, presented as sound, but the books were cooked and lies were told. You've got to be really suspicious, and very certain of what you think you know, in order to invest that way. Last major stock I owned much of was Ford, when it was killed circa 2008, but I KNEW their business was sound and I made 4x my money. But I hardly practice it anymore during these more risky times.

In the overall market I sold out in late 2007 at market peak because the fundamentals of the market were crappy, and avoided the loss. I did NOT have the balls to fully come back into the market in 2009 (even though there were some signs that one could do this and ride it back up) because I'm risk averse, especially in these times, and viewed (as I still do) the larger market as largley untrustworthy. So I lost some of the gains I could have had, but slept better at night for it. (And I did make some PM gains in this time as well.)

I no longer ever pay attention to a stock broker - at least blindly. Tried that 15-20 years ago with Merrill Lynch and quickly realized they were on the take, pumping stocks.

If I really trusted the overall market (I don't much) and if I had the time (which I don't much) I would dig further into your methods. Not a good fit with me now, but I still like to follow your reasoning.

As you say, DYODD

Good post. I agree. Fundamentals (funnymentals) are only as good as the truthfulness behind them which is only known after the fact, if ever at all. Knowing what the data is would not be a catalyst to drive share price however. EPS and financial statement data is obsessed by those few who can spend $millions to put boots on the ground to determine what they are likely to be before the public knows. Once data is released, people react emotionally based on what they expected hoped and feared. Any surprise is most often swept in a vacuum of illiquid price discovery (i.e. price gaps) In the end people use their emotional makeup to gravitate towards what fits for them or at least what they think will offer an edge. My approach is simple. I just attempt to go where the market flows go. If wrong I jump out like its a pool of acid. If right, I stand on the gas pedal like a professional driver with a brand new Bugatti Veyron coming out of a banked corner and into a long straight away.
Win or lose, in the end everyone gets what they want out of the market.
Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

solid post jff

Thanks for the kind remark friend.
Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

JFF, who's lucky? The Ute's or Cougs? Me! I've been buying as much Ag as possible while it is (was) under $30/oz

Come on friend. You know what I have to say here. The Cougs are lucky the Utes were playing with 2nd-4th string QB's, RB's and safeties. It would have been ugly to run up the scoreboard too far again
J/K- That was a sleepy game with an incredibly wild ending. Thanks for making what has been a terrific rivalry for so many years.
Now that the future for both programs diverge, hopefully there will still be a game every now and then for old times sake.
Glad you scooped and stacked this summer.
Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

How a bout a 30 second explanation of what the charts show. - is red accumulative and blue distributive?

Hi friend. Guessing you mean the rather strange looking chart with vertical histograms that look like distribution functions. This is similar to "market Profile". On that chart the price is segmented by time to see where the flows and trades were clustered. Colors only illustrate by time which histogram prices where printed from earliest to most recent. The histogram on the left side of the vertical bar is cumulative of the last 5 days. On the right side you'll see only that days profile. Hope that helps.
Cheers!

[fb101]

Thanks.
That looks like a phenomenal tool.

[Country]

Looks like we've got a PENNANT BULL PATTERN setting up in both GOLD and SILVER! Not too much longer these patterns devolve into another SPIKE higher. I'd guess we could see the next resistence point tested SOON around $38 for SILVER....

[fb101]

Thanks country -
Which symbpol are you charting?

BTW: I think there has been a massive effort to hold silver under 35 this week.

[Country]

$SILVER - SILVER SPOT SYMBOL.
$GOLD - GOLD SPOT SYMBOL.

Quadrupal witching on the futures today. Violent swings are the order of the day. Best to just forget about today and look towards next week.

[fb101]

Is this morning a trend change?

[CtrlAltBernanke]

Looks like it.

http://www.brotherjohnf.com/wp-content/ ... 092412.jpg

[Country]

SELLERS are surely probing the downside... Pennant patterns may slope slightly downward as part of the consolidation. I would say that the trend up is not broken. Only if the prior resistence point, now the support, at around $32 is broken, will the trend fundies be changed in the other direction. Therefore, buy the dip when the opportunity arises.

Remember that the SILVER RSI was way too high. Some light downtrending is in order to relieve the overbought condition. The SILVER rise has been from $27 to $35 (so far). A positive trend is valid, even with a 1/3 retracement; which would put SILVER around $32.

[mflugher]

I'll be looking for a minor drop (30 to 50 cents) tomorrow to buy in my first 25% or so. As you know from previous posts I went all out after the Bernake spoke 2 thursday ago. If it doesn't happen tomorrow I'll be looking for the rest of the week, I'd like to buy my first tranche around $33.50, and go all in if we see sub $32 with a bottom hit. Again paper playing only.

[fb101]

gritting my teeth carrying the longs.
uhhhhhhh.............

[Country]

RSI should be in the mid-50s now... The correction may be over!

USD weakness will be the confirming event...

[68Camaro]

I don't really see the goings-on the past few days as a "correction". Could be attributable to a number of things, and maybe many/all of the suggestions are part of it, but it seems to me (and a few other commentators) more like price-supression so that the big players can buy while they can as low as they can. This is somewhat the opposite of what many have considered the evil behind the cartel, which was to cause damage to the reputation of PMs. It is a form of manipulation, but 180 degrees away from what some have said was going on.

I believe there is more than one manipulating force in the market, and they are not all cooperating with each other.

Regardless, I believe another major move up will come soon.

[Country]

I agree.. Move up coming soon...

[NHsorter]

I hope you are right, I just went in heavy on paper again right before the close.

[goodcents]

I totally agree with the move up. From everything I've read through multiple sources - even with the market manipulation over the past week there hasn't been a real strong move down on the price of silver. I could be totally wrong but I feel good about buying silver right now.

[mflugher]

Still think we will see another buck or so on the downside minimum... Course I also believe we will see $40 silver by year end. Guess all I'm saying is volatility will continue to be with us for a while.

Prepare for it

[SilverDragon72]

Either way....I'm going to be my own force in manipulating......how much silver I can buy! Market forces be damned!

[Country]

Looking strong right now! Noontime is UP, not DOWN....

USD weakness - confirmation...

[everything]

Moved up a dollar today, nothing to unusual these days, would be interesting to see the yearly high of 37.23 get taken out though.

[brian0918]

Silver just shot up a dollar in the last few minutes! Gold up $14!

The ratio is now down to 50.40 - better get your entries in for the contest, which closes when the ratio hits 50.00: viewtopic.php?f=22&t=18249