neilgin1 wrote:natsb88 wrote:
None of it. Some people get so caught up in the paper markets, managing accounts where our combined hoards here at Realcent would be nothing more than a rounding error, that they forget that there are other types of markets out there. Markets for real transactions of physical goods, markets and products that can't necessarily be bought and sold from a comfy office chair on Wall Street. Markets that have tens of thousands of small players, each operating independently with their own goals, instead of just a handful of huge players, often sharing or pooling resources to influence the market. Markets that involve tangible products, and manufacturing, are subject to the laws of time and physics, and can't be expanded and contracted on a whim by changing some numbers on a contract or rules at an exchange. When these markets, retail physical markets, influenced less by corporatism and bets on futures and more by instantaneous supply and demand, show signs of departing from the paper market, even just temporarily, those Wall-Street-is-the-be-all-end-all-of-prices-for-everything guys start to panic.
Surely the paper market can't be wrong. The market makers, companies like JP Morgan, those guys are on the up-and-up. That must mean the retail physical dealers are the problem. How DARE they deviate from the paper prices set by the Wall Street gods? Those slimy physical companies are out to stiff their customers, because clearly they don't depend on repeat business. Those mom-and-pop shops are price gouging, because silver is a basic necessity that people are obligated to buy, and there are no competitors they could go to if they don't like their price. Markets where the price is set then and there, by a buyer with cash in hand and a seller with a physical product...what an EVIL idea. Those sellers are extortionists and those buyers are idiots. Don't you know that prices are set by people much higher up in the food chain? Small business owners and end customers shouldn't have any say in prices, a free market can only be run properly by big corporations with special government connections and by people with lots and lots of money.
There is nothing more frightening and frustrating to someone who lives in a paper world than seeing the physical price of a commodity depart from the paper price. That defies everything they KNOW about markets. There's a feeling of complete loss of control. What chart can you use to determine the future premium of an ASE? What index can you use to hedge against the rise or fall of retail physical silver premiums? How can you figure out how quickly the mints can respond to increased demand and how many people will be waiting in line and for how long and how much do they want to buy and what price are they willing to pay? Is it panic buying? Are higher premiums the new norm? Will they go back down? When? In the physical market we're talking about people and personal decisions, and those aren't always predictable. That type of uncertainty can make paper traders' heads explode, so naturally any indication that it could be happening will bring out harsh criticisms from those who need the paper market to maintain dominance.
well spoke Nate.....I thought I was a good writer...you're much better than I, in crafting a rebuttal to obvious confusion sown. well spoke.
Well spoken, yes. Truthful, not. This is not a contest of debate.
As to Nate- The final paragraph is full of pure rubbish. The very obvious undertone is that I'm a guy who lives in the "paper world" and that somehow that is a bad thing. The reality is that we all live in a paper world. Paper isn't good or bad, nether is physical. It simply is what it is. There are advantages and disadvantages for each. A dealer who is constantly looking to offload physical, wants paper. They are naturally long physical and are on the sell side, which makes them naturally in demand for paper. Further what some "KNOW" about markets is that there was obvious price gouging activity taking place by several small bucket shops during a rapid price decline and they pointed it out when it was occurring.
Again, naturally on the sell side, small un-hedged dealers want other unsuspecting fools to pay for mark to market losses when balance sheets dropout. If not, they go out of business. Saw this in 2008-9. Same story, same unscrupulous practices recently by several small bucket shops.
The markets are the ultimate arbiter. As unfortunate as it is when some folks get ripped off, its also during those market conditions that the unethical and uncouth bucketeers thankfully get washed away. Sadly the same breed tends to re-emerge during bullish trends. Always interesting to see so many buy the gold and silver now Now NOw NOW dot coms push silly stories about vault runs and worldwide instant shortages during a massive sell-off (opposite of crazed unsustainable, irrational exuberance buying) to support their new 4x+ premium gouging. Even more interesting to see the unscrupulous dealers flush out their supply at artificially inflated prices away from the liquid trading pools, turn around and re-supply from the liquid locations then post new inventory at significantly lower premiums. Where did all that mysterious supply suddenly come from? As far as predictability- the nonexistent future is always unknowable, regardless of paper or physical.
"There's a feeling of complete loss of control" Really? The loss of sense of control is when the bucketeer jacks up premiums from $3 to $11+ in a declining market while others may not. THAT is a loss of control, ethics, professionalism etc etc........
"That type of uncertainty can make paper traders' heads explode, so naturally any indication that it could be happening will bring out harsh criticisms from those who need the paper market to maintain dominance." One of the most ridiculous lines of horse shite I've ever read here. The folks who seem to be concerned about the uncertainty are many (physical holders) here who have expressed as much recently. I don't know about heads exploding. That seems to be a stretch.
As far as hedging and how to hedge, what to hedge with, how to structure the hedge, and with what forward curves etc- that isn't difficult. There is no need for "paper market to maintain dominance". It simply is dominant. Will that ever change? Nobody knows. But, it is what it is. As an obviously biased, non-independent view, with an inherent conflict of interest, your stance is well known for obvious reasons.
I much prefer to maintain independence and trade where the opportunity is, physical or paper.
Cheers!