90% Silver Dry up First?

[neilgin1]

Will 90% Silver Dry up First?
In short.....NO
Long answer......it may become scarce to market at times as any supply vs demand commodity does, but rest assured it is the king and the reserves are there.

Folks, lets cut the speculation hogwash and run the numbers. 90% is going nowhere and here's why.

Let us evaluate the commonly traded 90% that the US has minted:
21351.5 metric tons Washington Quarters
15756.0 metric tons Bens, Kens, and Walkers
20906.6 metric tons Mercs and Rosies.

58014 METRIC TONS of Common 90%. Folks this doesn't include the Barber series and Standing Libertys we often see in junk, and i'm not even counting the first Peace or Morgan dollar in this number because that would blow this comparison to orbit. These are just the common fractional 90% coins. Wait!, I know what your thinking and resist the urge of...."but gee wiz doc; I was told they melted a bunch of them there silver coins in da 80's". My answer.....So What? Let's say they melted a full 50% of them (which is grossly inflated estimate). That still leaves us with approximately 30 THOUSAND METRIC TONS of fractional common 90% floating around.

So how much is 30K Met-tons? Well lets compare it the second most popular bullion vehicle ever produced; the Silver American eagle. There have been 10474.4 metric tons of those minted. Assuming no attrition (melting or loss) this still places the all high and mighty ASE at a 1:3 ratio once to ounce in relation to 90%.

Time out for review:
-There is a bunch of 90%
-Even if half of the 90% ever minted has been melted (which is so ridiculous I'm ashamed that I typed it) there is still a bunch of it.
-So much of it that ASEs to 90% = 1:3
-At this rate If you can wait another 60+ years ASEs will be as common (per ounce) as 90%.

Doc....thanks for crunching numbers, because what MIGHT seem like a supply OVERHANG, I think of as LIQUIDITY....meaning post dollar...POST LEARNING CURVE, there WILL BE the numbers of pieces...coinage to insure a LIQUID, coherent TRADE.

its not so much I want the 90's (or 40's) to "go" anywhere...like a stock price. I want them to retain trade value, monetary value. i'm talking the rural areas, where I live....even now, there's a LOT of trade, in barter form...sans PM's...for instance, the former owners here, left me this beautiful TV, pre flat screen, but a beautiful TV....I just wont "buy" cable to watch commercials, or watch that silly palaber they call "news", so I traded it for a whole cord of split cured red elm...I already got more than enough farwood, but now I got more, and last nights low was 7 below with a 20 knot wind, so.....

you know what i'm saying?...liquidity, insuring currency, which insures heat, or food, or current, or security. I believe you're slightly bearish on the nominal price of Ag, and if we have the equities sell off that seems to be coming....yeh, we could $9 the toz again, but i'm not sure the physical AG can be had at that price....best to you esteemed Doc, n.

[68Camaro]

Gresham's Law will play out in the coming decade. I can't imagine there is a single one among us who doesn't divide their best stuff from their worst.

OB, I don't.......I keep everything tubed and inventoried, but there's no grand segregation. that said, you know I've gone for high numi's...

You don't need to Neil because I've seen what you bid on. The rest of us, we get some good, some average, some crappy. We put them into those piles. My good pile probably looks like your crappy pile would look if you had one

[neilgin1]

Do you believe that 90% silver will be the first to dry up after the masses realize that the economy is collapsing? <snip>

I would love to think the "masses" were so sophisticated and that the level thought would be so geared towards hording silver. No, when the masses realized the economy is collapsing the level of thought will be at more of a "base" level. The first things that will dry up will be things like food, water, toilet paper, cigarettes, alcohol, ammo, prescription drugs and coffee.

EXCELLENT point John....much more "base"...to my hearts sorrow. I don't mean to sound naïve, but I sure wish folks would take care of one another, but then I see those awful "Black Friday" video's....yeh buddy, there's going have to be many "resets" done, including one for people's hearts....and on that note lemme leave you with two video's, one a song and the other from a GREAT film I saw on Netflix:

[neilgin1]

Gresham's Law will play out in the coming decade. I can't imagine there is a single one among us who doesn't divide their best stuff from their worst.

OB, I don't.......I keep everything tubed and inventoried, but there's no grand segregation. that said, you know I've gone for high numi's...

You don't need to Neil because I've seen what you bid on. The rest of us, we get some good, some average, some crappy. We put them into those piles. My good pile probably looks like your crappy pile would look if you had one

I hope you and the Mrs are well my brother.....y'know reading the news...alt-media, that is, and seeing ALL these terrible signs, more and more every single day....now I know why, I walked around in $10 sneakers....I know why, that when it SEEMED I paid up, for say $40 face of MS66+ 64 Kennedy DCAM Proofs, I was really buying "good"....AND mixing that all up with blowing away anybody that would go near rolls of 65-69 Kenns (and yes 1970's too...which I didn't let one roll get away from me...and the 1970 Kenns? both UNC and proof's?...holy moly!!....they're COUNTERTRENDING!)

68...just today?....you saw that farce on the "board" right?......these humps are getting desperate to keep this whole thing together...because EVERY coin I mentioned above?....you cant find them...and IF you do?...you will be bidding against one guy that's got 4182 transactions, and some VERY DEEP pockets.

but there are some "good deals" left, but not in coins....go to walmart dot com, and go to "groceries" and punch in "Augason Farms" into the search bar...from there, for not a crazy amount of frns, you start to build the foundation of a long term food storage protocol....and the shipping is FREE...plus if you go to paypal, and use the "bill me later" thing, and buy $250 or more?......you got 6 months, zero payments, zero interest to pay it off....be well my brother, n.

[neilgin1]

I'm with Ray on this, not that it is critical. I was going to comment last night but i was just too tired to post then. Recycle coin silver has been sucked into supply for 40 years, and while there is still "a lot" left relative to what was minted, I'd be shocked if it was more than 20% of original, and I was going to guess it at more like the 10% number that Ray threw out.

We're all guessing... but here's a more definitive article from an insider...

http://www.pcgs.com/News/After-The-Melts-Whats-Left-In-Silver-Coins

also... The Big Silver Melt suggests 75% melted

sorry to keep posting on this thread, but that is a GREAT ARTICLE!!.....the 1958-P Wash's....yeh boy....so when silver hits $130 (which is equal to the 79-80 $50 Hunt high, you think this melting will happen again?)

[68Camaro]

but there are some "good deals" left, but not in coins....go to walmart dot com, and go to "groceries" and punch in "Augason Farms" into the search bar...

I buy from AF every month or two. Usually alternatively with emergency essentials at beprepared.com. I usually buy the specials and sales as they fit my needs, usually 40-70% off. Haven't compared their sales to their price at WM but I will. I've found so far these products to be excellent and preferred to many grocery items due to the extensive shelf life, and am slowly integrating many of them into rotation instead of canned and refrigerated. Some are a bit more expensive than the grocer, some not. AF has a great gluten free line which the wife needs. I made a rhubarb pie for her with their pie crust mix (with coconut oil for shortening) and had several people that tried it say it was one of the best pies they'd ever had. Slightly off topic but long shelf life food is definitely as much of an investment item as PMs.

[johnbrickner]

Do you believe that 90% silver will be the first to dry up after the masses realize that the economy is collapsing? <snip>

I would love to think the "masses" were so sophisticated and that the level thought would be so geared towards hording silver. No, when the masses realized the economy is collapsing the level of thought will be at more of a "base" level. The first things that will dry up will be things like food, water, toilet paper, cigarettes, alcohol, ammo, prescription drugs and coffee.

EXCELLENT point John....much more "base"...to my hearts sorrow. I don't mean to sound naïve, but I sure wish folks would take care of one another, but then I see those awful "Black Friday" video's....yeh buddy, there's going have to be many "resets" done, including one for people's hearts....and on that note lemme leave you with two video's, one a song and the other from a GREAT film I saw on Netflix: <snip>

Neil:

Thanks for responding Buddy. It's always makes the forum more real and personal when you are around. And yea, the deal in the future will be how well the community you are in takes care of each other. In the present (I won't watch the Black Friday videos any more,) I see both. I see people going out of their way to help a complete stranger and I see much less human (humanity) behavior in much of the youth I serve. I'm afraid the latter impacts me the most as young people will have the best opportunity to survive in the future. And thanx for the info on Augason Farms.

[paymehigher]

Interesting 29 page report- "Charles Savoie – Changes Coming In Pricing of 90% Coin"
http://www.brotherjohnf.com/archives/250703

[neilgin1]

Interesting 29 page report- "Charles Savoie – Changes Coming In Pricing of 90% Coin"
http://www.brotherjohnf.com/archives/250703

Thank you so much PMH...great article, which engendered a LOT of reflection, and a lot of "wargaming".

1...personally?...i'm thankful I had experience in the trading pits, coz I got to know trading, and more importantly traders, which meant that when I began stacking, instinctively I knew to stay away from bags of 90's, because a bag is CLOTH, you cant see thru it, and no trader will "give" you anything...cloth is NOT transparent....and when i'm spending grown up coin to insure dubious currency, I want to know EXACTLY what i'm bidding for...in trading you don't assume on the kindness of the human heart, that's foolhardy.

2.perception of money is crucial....today, the perception of money is a gray piece of paper with Andrew Jackson on it. (talk about irony)....when one says "precious metal"...as money, it better LOOK precious....I know some will disagree with me, but the ASE is a darn good looking coin, as well as GEM BU Half Dollar.

3. when reality becomes obvious, and the game is over...I fully expect that there will be some sort of Exec order, or edict, making trade in silver...illegal. in that vein , I think they'll pull an FDR, and just try a gold confiscation again....but silver trade will be made, technically illegal......so what, that's why its called the black market (or gray market), and I think guys should wrap their heads around operating in that environment.

great article and website, appreciate the turn on.

[neilgin1]

while we're on the subject of 90's, check these listings out...I KNOW their numi's, rolls of Proofs....3 $10 rolls of Franklins and a $10 roll of 64 Kenn Proofs, but with 4 days left to the auction, look how they're trading...and more important, check who's bidding on them:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/190998758591?

http://www.ebay.com/itm/190998758598?

http://www.ebay.com/itm/360811533627?

http://www.ebay.com/itm/360811533664?

[68Camaro]

The topic of worn coin has been discussed extensively here. You're not going to get high quality coin when buying a dealer bag, and you might not even get your 715 oz, depending on who you are buying from.

[beauanderos]

The topic of worn coin has been discussed extensively here. You're not going to get high quality coin when buying a dealer bag, and you might not even get your 715 oz, depending on who you are buying from.

I'll buy every bag of 715 Barbers that any online dealer has priced at bullion pricing Mercs, too... and Standing Libs

heck,
even Walkers

[neilgin1]

The topic of worn coin has been discussed extensively here. You're not going to get high quality coin when buying a dealer bag, and you might not even get your 715 oz, depending on who you are buying from.

I'll buy every bag of 715 Barbers that any online dealer has priced at bullion pricing Mercs, too... and Standing Libs

heck,
even Walkers

oh man.....you're gonna give me the fever again....just when I started to "act responsible"...meaning to go from "weak hand hold" to strong hand..paying off PM buy debt....you write this!

i'm going to ignore this, and continue to pay down, be thankful for what I have.......geez OB, you're a bad influence. (lol)

[paymehigher]

Don't you guys think that .999 fine silver is more ideal then 90% silver? Its easier to sell the .999 silver, and I have heard that 90% was sold at a big discount in the 80's when the refineries got backed up.

[scyther]

Don't you guys think that .999 fine silver is more ideal then 90% silver? Its easier to sell the .999 silver, and I have heard that 90% was sold at a big discount in the 80's when the refineries got backed up.

There was more of it around back then (since less had been melted) and it was still viewed as a dirt-common, low prestige form of silver since it had been in regular circulation just 15 years earlier. Also, it just tends to get melted when the price is really high, that doesn't usually happen as much. Now it's been out of use for 50 years, so it's more respectable. I also really don't think it's hard to sell.

[beauanderos]

The topic of worn coin has been discussed extensively here. You're not going to get high quality coin when buying a dealer bag, and you might not even get your 715 oz, depending on who you are buying from.

I'll buy every bag of 715 Barbers that any online dealer has priced at bullion pricing Mercs, too... and Standing Libs

heck,
even Walkers

oh man.....you're gonna give me the fever again....just when I started to "act responsible"...meaning to go from "weak hand hold" to strong hand..paying off PM buy debt....you write this!

i'm going to ignore this, and continue to pay down, be thankful for what I have.......geez OB, you're a bad influence. (lol)

What I meant to say... but I doubt that it was clear... was if there were truly any 715 ounce bags for sale of those type coins... and priced at bullion prices... I'd be all over them. Coins need to be XF or better to meet that standard. Walkers, as an example, are easily pulling $310 and more, depending on year, when in AU or better.

[paymehigher]

Doesnt the government own all the 90% silver out there? They issued it and we are just "allowed" to use it, so they could take it back at any time, or make it illegal to melt it.

[scyther]

Doesnt the government own all the 90% silver out there? They issued it and we are just "allowed" to use it, so they could take it back at any time, or make it illegal to melt it.

As Roosevelt proved in 1933, the government can lay claim to precious metals (or anything else) any time it wants. But legally, I don't believe the government owns the 90%. Coins are considered government property in a lot of countries, but I don't believe they are here. If the government wanted to take our silver, I don't think it would bother with using an excuse like that. It didn't in '33. Also, ASEs are just as likely in my opinion to be considered government property as 90%.

[theo]

Doesnt the government own all the 90% silver out there? They issued it and we are just "allowed" to use it, so they could take it back at any time, or make it illegal to melt it.

If the government makes such a move it will destroy any pretense of respecting property rights (and IMO) their right to govern. Making a decree is one thing, enforce it is another. There are plenty of pre-1933 gold coins in existence today demonstrating that FDR's confiscation scheme was at least a partial failure.

[68Camaro]

...There are plenty of pre-1933 gold coins in existence today demonstrating that FDR's confiscation scheme was at least a partial failure.

Just so we're all on the same page, the Executive Order confiscating gold (in general) did NOT confiscate ALL gold.
http://www.goldline.com/images/1933-exec-order-6102.pdf

Especially worthy of note was the exemption for $100 in gold coin per person, which in aggregate of roughly 5 toz per person for the nearly 126 million in population could have totaled as much as 625 million toz of gold coin that could have legally remained in the hands of the people. That's more than 19,000 tons - about 2x more than the US ended up collecting in total. (Not that it was that much - most people didn't hold ANY gold coin, but some did.)

See this link for the population of the day:

http://www.census.gov/population/estima ... ockest.txt

So there was plenty of opportunity for residual legal gold coin to remain in private possession. That those coins still exist does not mean that they were illegally held.

[paymehigher]

So do you guys still think that 90% silver has the most upside over .999 silver?

[68Camaro]

All I can tell you is what I think, which will be different from what some others think.

I think if you intend to buy and hold, that what will matter the most is total toz and that it be of a widely recognizable type. I think US 90% and government 99.9% will in many cases be able to serve essentially exactly the same purposes. In other cases either one may have more value to one person than another, and for that reason I hold both. I also hold a modest amount of 40%, and some other common non-US government coin of other countries (Maples, Sovs, Libertads). I also have a smattering of misc non-governmental stuff that has intrinsic value but is as much for my own amusement as anything, these are more of a collectable nature than anything, and are a very small portion of what I hold. I think excessive worry about whether or not you are paying $1/toz too much now is going to be of little concern when silver is $150/toz. Buy quality (but mostly non-numismatic) stuff from people you trust - that should be the core of your hoard. If you want to on top of that then delve into numi stuff, that's fine, but you'd best be prepared to do some deep study into what of that has value.

I should add that I also have a modest amount of .999 bar with the hallmark of a relatively recognized source (JM, Silvertowne, etc). But I don't have that as the primary core of my stash (which, BTW, just all fell into the dang lake this past weekend, again! Time to start over, again!)