Palladium and Rhodium Spot Prices

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

You guys holding on to any palladium coins seriously should consider selling them soon/now. Could it go higher?.. sure, but keep in mind no LCS is going to give you anywhere near the spot price because: 1) A bubble has formed and 2) Palladium coins are such a very small market.

Look at this monthly chart of palladium and tell me it's not in a bubble...
https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=PA&p=m1

As soon as a chart goes parabolic like that, there's not much time left before the breakdown. I warned people about Blipcoins when they got above $15K. I don't care what the "story" is... the chart tells all.

[68Camaro]

Warning duly noted. That said I'm in it for the long haul. Not to mention that the world of catalytic metals is spectacularly small. While the move to lower density (and at the time lower cost) Pd pulled part of the market out from under Pt and cranked up demand and cost for Pd, they are now priced competively with each other for that industrial purpose, and I see them both moving up further from here proportially. You see a bubble. I see overdo recognition of the value of Pd as Pt became overpriced. They both corrected to their fair value. Now they can both move further up.

[68Camaro]

BTW I'm not saying Pd won't correct down a bit. Wouldn't be surprised to see it drop back to 1500.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Warning duly noted. That said I'm in it for the long haul. Not to mention that the world of catalytic metals is spectacularly small. While the move to lower density (and at the time lower cost) Pd pulled part of the market out from under Pt and cranked up demand and cost for Pd, they are now priced competively with each other for that industrial purpose, and I see them both moving up further from here proportially. You see a bubble. I see overdo recognition of the value of Pd as Pt became overpriced. They both corrected to their fair value. Now they can both move further up.

Good "story" there. I'm simply basing it on the chart.

[InfleXion]

I've got a few grams of Valcambi palladium collecting dust somewhere, hard to believe how expensive it's gotten. I just don't follow that market or understand it well enough to know why there's a squeeze. In other words, any reason why it might be a good time to sell other than profit taking? I'm actually feeling inclined to sell some of my fancy silver before a price boost eats into the premiums, and turn it into something more generic.

[coppernickel]

I've got a few grams of Valcambi palladium collecting dust somewhere, hard to believe how expensive it's gotten. I just don't follow that market or understand it well enough to know why there's a squeeze. In other words, any reason why it might be a good time to sell other than profit taking? I'm actually feeling inclined to sell some of my fancy silver before a price boost eats into the premiums, and turn it into something more generic.

Interesting, my Palladium holdings are one single Valcambi gram.

If I understand correctly, the rising Palladium price is related to a shortage caused by car catalytic converters being changed to Palladium from Platinum because of the high cost and scarcity.

Interesting now that Palladium is high and Platinum is lower.

[Dr. Cadmium]

In other words, any reason why it might be a good time to sell other than profit taking?

Because it's at an all time high. It's currently more valuable in USD than gold has ever been, and is almost at platinum's all-time record high from back in 2008.

Basically, the palladium market has "bubble" written all over it (as well as most of the other markets at this point, BTW). It's a metal with a limited number of applications, and because it doesn't have the widespread recognition of gold or silver most people are not aware of its value so it is not easy to trade.

If you're in for the multi-generational long haul, then by all means hold onto your Pd. Otherwise realize that it could take decades before it hits prices like this again.

I'd also like to add that there is nothing wrong with profit taking, esepcially when you're multiplying your additional investment. Any day I make money on a trade is a good day.

[68Camaro]

Do you think Platinum is in a bubble?

If not, consider this: Palladium (12.02 g/cc) has the same primary industrial use as Platinum (19.77 g/cc), which is as a surface activating catalyst. In that role it is the amount of area of the catalyst that matters. Because the density of Pd is only 60% of Pt, it only takes 60% of the mass of Pd to accomplish the same function. In a simple area for area comparison, the price of Pd can easily support 1.67 x the price of Pt and see the same use. On the surface that supports a base price for Pd of 980 x 1.67 = 1637 per toz.

I'm not an expert on catalysis, but Pt has been preferred for Diesel engines while Pd preferred for gasoline engines, but I believe either can be made to work in the alternate function.

Furthermore, in transportation industries, the lower density of Pd is an inherent advantage, all other things (like reactivity and price) being equal, making it worth somewhat more to the user.

Furthermore I believe there are certain types of catalysis that actually require Pd, and for those markets, even if small, they are willing to pay whatever it takes to get it. If the base market has driven Pd to 1600+, it is no stretch to imagine secondary markets reaching in to order the Pd they need to support their business, and being willing to buy it at almost any price, driving the price to well over 1600, due to need.

I see the current rise of Pd only changing direction substantially (to below 1.67 x Pt) if the use of the material actually decreases, which would have to be caused by a substantial change in the world's economy.

[Dr. Cadmium]

Do you think Platinum is in a bubble?

No. I consider Pt a buy at current prices; anything below $1,000/toz is a bargain. As I post this it's at $1,012/toz. Of the 5 PMs, I think it's the best pick right now. Silver is very volatile and I think it will drop more in the coming correction, but it's still a good buy today if you look at historical prices.

I see the current rise of Pd only changing direction substantially (to below 1.67 x Pt) if the use of the material actually decreases, which would have to be caused by a substantial change in the world's economy.

Thank you for the info about Pd. I'm predicting that the next market correction will be followed by a substantial change in the world's economy, including the automotive market. The new electric cars do not use Pd.

[68Camaro]

Always looking for market changes. I agree that Pd and Pt prices will collapse if the industrial use disappears, and that change away from fossil fuel for personal vehicles would be the primary source of such a collapse. (Or deprecation of personal vehicles entirely, which is also possible - if the trends of the under 30s persist and we end up with bans on manual vehicles and only self-driving autonomous vehicles allowed within major metropolitan areas, which would eventually eliminate any need for manual vehicles except for industrial or inter-city use.)

I just think predictions of the demise of fossil fuel manual vehicles are a bit premature. I think it is more likely in the next 10 years that Tesla will go bankrupt when the Li-Ion batteries they are using age and cars with those power sources increase their rate of self-combustion exponentially to the point where they will no longer be allowed to be housed in buildings, and the resulting lawsuits end the use of that power source as a favored selection. I name Tesla specifically because he has a noted tendency to push his companies ahead of physics without regard to consequences. A new energy storage technology needs to be developed before non-hybrid electric cars will replace liquid fueled cars, in my opinion.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Chasing an already high priced asset is dangerous. You gotta be extremely nimble. Lots and lots of speculators in Pd right now. When traders/algos start selling, the price will collapse fast.

Silver is what everyone here should be focused on. The profit potential is tremendous. Get as much as you can now, while it's at bargain basement prices.

[68Camaro]

Chasing an already high priced asset is dangerous. You gotta be extremely nimble. Lots and lots of speculators in Pd right now. When traders/algos start selling, the price will collapse fast.

Silver is what everyone here should be focused on. The profit potential is tremendous. Get as much as you can now, while it's at bargain basement prices.

In nothing I've written have I even remotely suggested chasing Pd - I merely stated that I was holding what I had gotten at lower prices and why I believe there is still upside. As far as trading, I don't believe the issues with fiat metal ETFs currently apply to Pd or Pt as all the largest funds are physical ETFs or closed end Trusts which actually hold 100% of the metal they trade on.

[68Camaro]

Oh - but I do absolutely agree that Ag is the value play. If you aren't sitting on a big stack of it you're missing a lifetime opportunity.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Chasing an already high priced asset is dangerous. You gotta be extremely nimble. Lots and lots of speculators in Pd right now. When traders/algos start selling, the price will collapse fast.

Silver is what everyone here should be focused on. The profit potential is tremendous. Get as much as you can now, while it's at bargain basement prices.

In nothing I've written have I even remotely suggested chasing Pd - I merely stated that I was holding what I had gotten at lower prices and why I believe there is still upside. As far as trading, I don't believe the issues with fiat metal ETFs currently apply to Pd or Pt as all the largest funds are physical ETFs or closed end Trusts which actually hold 100% of the metal they trade on.

I was not referencing/targeting you, just making a statement about an overpriced asset(s) vs. underpriced ones.

[InfleXion]

Still have mine, but it is Pt that I consider closer to best value so bought a bit more this past couple of weeks. From some brief discussions at the FUN show it looks like smelter prices at a percent of spot is the practical price for Pd bullion right now. Had a dealer offer me a raw Pd Eagle for $1850 rather than 2100, which is 88% of spot. I passed. There may still be more to go for Pd but I'm not a buyer at these prices.

I'm also interested in acquiring more Pt, but is it really a better deal than silver? I struggle to justify anything over silver. Only gold makes me giddy enough to pay the high price against my better judgement. My experience with Pt has been unprofitable which has turned me off to it a bit, and it looks like silver anyway. Silver hasn't been profitable either, but I know and love the silver story.

[68Camaro]

The only "problem" with silver is that there are mass/space limits to how much physical silver most people can stand to own. For the other PMs: Pt, Au, Pd - you can own the same value amount for 50 to 100 times lower mass (and related lower space). However, if mass/space is an issue and you want to own more silver, if you're so motivated you can consider a trust fund like PSLV, which actually owns 100% of the silver in it. The only downside to PSLV as far as I am aware is that in an emergency you don't actually have it in hand - but I would presume that one wouldn't be putting money in PSLV in order to fulfill an emergency need (you should still own your own physical silver in addition to PSLV). The upside is that the physical is safely protected in RCM vaults, which is about as safe as one can get in this world (apart from distributed diversity of storage locations). If you believe silver is the value play, consider PSLV, and after you've made your fortune in it when the Au/Ag ratio comes down below 40:1 or lower, you can trade it in for PHYS and convert to gold.

[68Camaro]

The problem with Pt is an individual one - timing. (And potentially the same issue with Ag for many people.) If you bought high, you're underwater. That doesn't make it less of a value now. I had a small number of early Pt trades/purchases that I made at higher prices, including one that was higher than the price of gold (ugh), but with my later purchases I'm way above water.

[Recyclersteve]

If I get too much exposure to platinum and palladium, I will need something else that is very precious- IMODIUM!

[InfleXion]

The only "problem" with silver is that there are mass/space limits to how much physical silver most people can stand to own. For the other PMs: Pt, Au, Pd - you can own the same value amount for 50 to 100 times lower mass (and related lower space). However, if mass/space is an issue and you want to own more silver, if you're so motivated you can consider a trust fund like PSLV, which actually owns 100% of the silver in it. The only downside to PSLV as far as I am aware is that in an emergency you don't actually have it in hand - but I would presume that one wouldn't be putting money in PSLV in order to fulfill an emergency need (you should still own your own physical silver in addition to PSLV). The upside is that the physical is safely protected in RCM vaults, which is about as safe as one can get in this world (apart from distributed diversity of storage locations). If you believe silver is the value play, consider PSLV, and after you've made your fortune in it when the Au/Ag ratio comes down below 40:1 or lower, you can trade it in for PHYS and convert to gold.

It'll be a long time before I'm rich enough for silver to exceed my space and if I have to bug out that's why I like gold, and to some extent Pt. Pd being combustible might be a deterrent! My issue with Pt and Pd is that they're harder to barter since not as many people know as much about them, so I don't want too much exposure.

I haven't looked at my investment fund in a long time, probably should. I always figured all paper would go to zero before I retired, but the timing of things has me guessing now. I have some gold miners, S&P bear, and regular S&P, so something ought to win, but I suspect the bear has dwindled to peanuts. Probably a good time to transfer a bit into it just in case.

[68Camaro]

Pd isn't combustible.

[InfleXion]

Pd isn't combustible.

Coulda swore I read that on wikipedia a while back, but sure enough, no evidence of that being the case. I guess that proves I'm not a robot, or at least not programmed very well if I am

[coppernickel]

Palladium is the top of the business section of BBC news today. Saying it is up 25% in the past two weeks and has almost doubled over the past year.

The volatile price is one reason I keep my distance. I would rather have a slow and steady turtle than an unsure hare. My historic timing of volatility has given me more losers than winners.

Another concern is both platinum and palladium can be mistaken for silver. In barter that could be costly mistake.

[coppernickel]

If I get too much exposure to platinum and palladium, I will need something else that is very precious- IMODIUM!

.

[Dr. Cadmium]

Look at the Pd and Rh price jumps today. Prices are leaving "insane" territory and heading into "ridiculous."

[aloneibreak]

Look at the Pd and Rh price jumps today. Prices are leaving "insane" territory and heading into "ridiculous."

agreed

I’ve got 2 / 10ths of pd left

waiting for 3500