theo wrote:I'm looking at the impact on of Coronavirus on our society with growing disbelief. The fact that sporting events, parades and other gatherings have been canceled almost casually over the passed week leaves me with a mix of unease and skepticism. I'm skeptical in that I wonder if this is at least partially an exercise to see how far western societies can be cowed. I won't go as far to say authorities are pleased at the current crisis, but I do sense that they are excited or perhaps even animated at being the focus of a fearful populous who are normally consumed with March Madness or the NFL draft. I am fearful because I wonder if all if these dramatic steps are being mandated by leaders who know that the truth of this crisis is much worse than what being reported in the mainstream media. Either way I suspect we will come of this ordeal a little less free.
ScrapMetal wrote:Governments know that FEAR and "We will protect you" works.
That old saying, "Never let a crisis go to waste" comes to mind.
Yes the entire hysteria is way over blown and extreme.
Entire cities locked down, movement restricted, panic buying.
I am sure the Powers That Be are watching and taking notes.
This will now be the new normal as people have readily accepted what has transpired so far.
68Camaro wrote:We all know that crises can be manipulated. Discernment is critical. Regardless of whether or not various sides are manipulating the virus issue, the disease is a crisis. The reaction to the disease is a separate related crisis and I'm not going to discuss that in this post.
As far as the disease itself - to repeat what people should be aware of - it is an incredibly fast spreader. Basic precautions would reduce the spread but people have behaved irresponsibly, and many continue those behaviors. Those under 50 have been at relatively low risk for serious effects - and I am distressed to see a cavalier behavior by many under 50s who don't seem to care except for any personal discomfort because they are slightly put out. However death rates go up exponentially with age, and over 60s are significantly more at risk, with over 80 death rates more than 100x that of the under 50s. One only needs to look at lifecare nursing home in Washington State to see what can happen on a local scale. Evidence of what this looks like on a larger scale need only to look at northern Italy, where hospitals are overrun (meaning if you have any other type of emergency - tough) and they are so short of ventilators that they are triaging patients and letting those in the worst shape just die. Even many under 50s are being critically infected and needing ventilation. Lets hope that doesn't include anyone here.
The health experts are trying to slow down infection rates so that medical care doesn't get overwhelmed. It might already be too late for that. The irony is that if they are successful the naysayers will loudly proclaim that there was never a crisis at all and it was all overblown.
Is the panic ridiculous? Yes, but mostly because people don't prepare and don't pay attention until they are forced to, and then they do irrational things.
I'll second that! It's a very logical outlook and I wish more people felt like this.Recyclersteve wrote:68Camaro wrote:We all know that crises can be manipulated. Discernment is critical. Regardless of whether or not various sides are manipulating the virus issue, the disease is a crisis. The reaction to the disease is a separate related crisis and I'm not going to discuss that in this post.
As far as the disease itself - to repeat what people should be aware of - it is an incredibly fast spreader. Basic precautions would reduce the spread but people have behaved irresponsibly, and many continue those behaviors. Those under 50 have been at relatively low risk for serious effects - and I am distressed to see a cavalier behavior by many under 50s who don't seem to care except for any personal discomfort because they are slightly put out. However death rates go up exponentially with age, and over 60s are significantly more at risk, with over 80 death rates more than 100x that of the under 50s. One only needs to look at lifecare nursing home in Washington State to see what can happen on a local scale. Evidence of what this looks like on a larger scale need only to look at northern Italy, where hospitals are overrun (meaning if you have any other type of emergency - tough) and they are so short of ventilators that they are triaging patients and letting those in the worst shape just die. Even many under 50s are being critically infected and needing ventilation. Lets hope that doesn't include anyone here.
The health experts are trying to slow down infection rates so that medical care doesn't get overwhelmed. It might already be too late for that. The irony is that if they are successful the naysayers will loudly proclaim that there was never a crisis at all and it was all overblown.
Is the panic ridiculous? Yes, but mostly because people don't prepare and don't pay attention until they are forced to, and then they do irrational things.
Well said!
theo wrote:I realize that this is a serious situation as things look bad in Italy and in Spain, but part of me is skeptical about the impact of this virus. ... Even with a 14 day incubation period we should already be seeing an increase in pneumonia cases. Where are the firm numbers on this? My point is that all the information we have does not quite match up.
theo wrote:. Why is "herd immunity" necessary for COVID19, but not for these other strains?
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