Thoughts on Coronavirus

[theo]

I'm looking at the impact on of Coronavirus on our society with growing disbelief. The fact that sporting events, parades and other gatherings have been canceled almost casually over the passed week leaves me with a mix of unease and skepticism. I'm skeptical in that I wonder if this is at least partially an exercise to see how far western societies can be cowed. I won't go as far to say authorities are pleased at the current crisis, but I do sense that they are excited or perhaps even animated at being the focus of a fearful populous who are normally consumed with March Madness or the NFL draft. I am fearful because I wonder if all if these dramatic steps are being mandated by leaders who know that the truth of this crisis is much worse than what being reported in the mainstream media. Either way I suspect we will come of this ordeal a little less free.

[aloneibreak]

I'm looking at the impact on of Coronavirus on our society with growing disbelief. The fact that sporting events, parades and other gatherings have been canceled almost casually over the passed week leaves me with a mix of unease and skepticism. I'm skeptical in that I wonder if this is at least partially an exercise to see how far western societies can be cowed. I won't go as far to say authorities are pleased at the current crisis, but I do sense that they are excited or perhaps even animated at being the focus of a fearful populous who are normally consumed with March Madness or the NFL draft. I am fearful because I wonder if all if these dramatic steps are being mandated by leaders who know that the truth of this crisis is much worse than what being reported in the mainstream media. Either way I suspect we will come of this ordeal a little less free.

nailed it

governors especially seem to be on a "power trip"

good to see you posting again

[ScrapMetal]

Governments know that FEAR and "We will protect you" works.
That old saying, "Never let a crisis go to waste" comes to mind.

Yes the entire hysteria is way over blown and extreme.
Entire cities locked down, movement restricted, panic buying.

I am sure the Powers That Be are watching and taking notes.

This will now be the new normal as people have readily accepted what has transpired so far.

[68Camaro]

We all know that crises can be manipulated. Discernment is critical. Regardless of whether or not various sides are manipulating the virus issue, the disease is a crisis. The reaction to the disease is a separate related crisis and I'm not going to discuss that in this post.

As far as the disease itself - to repeat what people should be aware of - it is an incredibly fast spreader. Basic precautions would reduce the spread but people have behaved irresponsibly, and many continue those behaviors. Those under 50 have been at relatively low risk for serious effects - and I am distressed to see a cavalier behavior by many under 50s who don't seem to care except for any personal discomfort because they are slightly put out. However death rates go up exponentially with age, and over 60s are significantly more at risk, with over 80 death rates more than 100x that of the under 50s. One only needs to look at lifecare nursing home in Washington State to see what can happen on a local scale. Evidence of what this looks like on a larger scale need only to look at northern Italy, where hospitals are overrun (meaning if you have any other type of emergency - tough) and they are so short of ventilators that they are triaging patients and letting those in the worst shape just die. Even many under 50s are being critically infected and needing ventilation. Lets hope that doesn't include anyone here.

The health experts are trying to slow down infection rates so that medical care doesn't get overwhelmed. It might already be too late for that. The irony is that if they are successful the naysayers will loudly proclaim that there was never a crisis at all and it was all overblown.

Is the panic ridiculous? Yes, but mostly because people don't prepare and don't pay attention until they are forced to, and then they do irrational things.

[justoneguy]

Not with a bang,
But a wimper

[coppernickel]

Governments know that FEAR and "We will protect you" works.
That old saying, "Never let a crisis go to waste" comes to mind.

Yes the entire hysteria is way over blown and extreme.
Entire cities locked down, movement restricted, panic buying.

I am sure the Powers That Be are watching and taking notes.

This will now be the new normal as people have readily accepted what has transpired so far.

If it's not broke don't fix it. This pattern is being used more and more often.

[Recyclersteve]

We all know that crises can be manipulated. Discernment is critical. Regardless of whether or not various sides are manipulating the virus issue, the disease is a crisis. The reaction to the disease is a separate related crisis and I'm not going to discuss that in this post.

As far as the disease itself - to repeat what people should be aware of - it is an incredibly fast spreader. Basic precautions would reduce the spread but people have behaved irresponsibly, and many continue those behaviors. Those under 50 have been at relatively low risk for serious effects - and I am distressed to see a cavalier behavior by many under 50s who don't seem to care except for any personal discomfort because they are slightly put out. However death rates go up exponentially with age, and over 60s are significantly more at risk, with over 80 death rates more than 100x that of the under 50s. One only needs to look at lifecare nursing home in Washington State to see what can happen on a local scale. Evidence of what this looks like on a larger scale need only to look at northern Italy, where hospitals are overrun (meaning if you have any other type of emergency - tough) and they are so short of ventilators that they are triaging patients and letting those in the worst shape just die. Even many under 50s are being critically infected and needing ventilation. Lets hope that doesn't include anyone here.

The health experts are trying to slow down infection rates so that medical care doesn't get overwhelmed. It might already be too late for that. The irony is that if they are successful the naysayers will loudly proclaim that there was never a crisis at all and it was all overblown.

Is the panic ridiculous? Yes, but mostly because people don't prepare and don't pay attention until they are forced to, and then they do irrational things.

Well said!

[Thogey]

I think the tact of paying the big companies to handle the logistics of this is a good idea.

George Bush would have the military all over this,while Wal-mart sat on their hands.
The optics of soldiers all over the place would be terrifying.

It's going to get bad. It like a wave we see coming, or a massive hurricane.
So if we as Americans are careful, thoughtful and kind to each other, it won't be hell.

Sunday Morning was brisk at the stores, inventory was rung out but available. Which tells me everyone got what they needed. This is good.
Is it possible when this passes we will be better and stronger? Well we better be, because this is the new normal.
The world has shrunk.

[Know Common Cents]

Originally in college, I majored in journalism. I was a prolific writer and really enjoyed doing interviews and sampling all sorts of political beliefs and theories. Definitely a confusing time in the late 1960s, but it was also a time to experience so many different things and ideas. Wouldn't have traded that time for anything...even now.

Back to reality, however, and the actuality of the world seemed like a bucket of cold water dumped on my head. Fast forward to the middle of March, 2020.

No doubt that the Coronavirus exists. Print and broadcast media are experts at manipulating the news and public sentiment. It sells. Really is unfortunate that the American public has to swallow the tripe that has been forced upon everyone.

My advice to everyone is to question everything. Don't blindly accept what the media has to say. These clowns are ones who stand in front of the camera in a "man bites dog" story. Seems that the general collective membership of RC has many free thinking and intelligent followers. Just don't blindly accept your fate without digging deeper.

Only the lazy-brain dullards are destined to join the unthinking masses. We're talking about your life and anyone else whom you care about. Hang tough and you'll survive.

[NHsorter]

We all know that crises can be manipulated. Discernment is critical. Regardless of whether or not various sides are manipulating the virus issue, the disease is a crisis. The reaction to the disease is a separate related crisis and I'm not going to discuss that in this post.

As far as the disease itself - to repeat what people should be aware of - it is an incredibly fast spreader. Basic precautions would reduce the spread but people have behaved irresponsibly, and many continue those behaviors. Those under 50 have been at relatively low risk for serious effects - and I am distressed to see a cavalier behavior by many under 50s who don't seem to care except for any personal discomfort because they are slightly put out. However death rates go up exponentially with age, and over 60s are significantly more at risk, with over 80 death rates more than 100x that of the under 50s. One only needs to look at lifecare nursing home in Washington State to see what can happen on a local scale. Evidence of what this looks like on a larger scale need only to look at northern Italy, where hospitals are overrun (meaning if you have any other type of emergency - tough) and they are so short of ventilators that they are triaging patients and letting those in the worst shape just die. Even many under 50s are being critically infected and needing ventilation. Lets hope that doesn't include anyone here.

The health experts are trying to slow down infection rates so that medical care doesn't get overwhelmed. It might already be too late for that. The irony is that if they are successful the naysayers will loudly proclaim that there was never a crisis at all and it was all overblown.

Is the panic ridiculous? Yes, but mostly because people don't prepare and don't pay attention until they are forced to, and then they do irrational things.

Well said!

I'll second that! It's a very logical outlook and I wish more people felt like this.

[Changechecker]

I'm a New Yorker. According to government statistics it is beginning to spread. We have several confirmed cases in our county and our first death yesterday. A hospital worker. One confirmed case was a school worker. Thousands in that district who are freaking out about it. Schools closed, casinos, bars,restaurants, non essential government buildings and such. Cuomo wants business to cut non essential staff for self quarantine. Basically have minimum business activity and its obvious when being out in public by the lack of traffic.
The food panic is unnecessary but with an ignorant public it's hard to get the message across. Western NY has extensive food production facilities and a great distribution network. I don't know if its fear of running out or fear of potential reaction from the have notes as we have a lot of poverty and when they start to run low on supplies things could become unpredictable. We are entering a very unpredictable time in the next few weeks.

[Recyclersteve]

I expect COVID-19 cases to go up sharply because there will simply be more people tested as production gets ramped up in the U.S.

Let me rephrase this differently. Think about what the stats show now- they show the number of cases, number of people who died, and the number who recovered. What is missing? The number of people who got tested.

If early on 1/2 of people tested are found to have Coronavirus, that is a data point I'd want to know. If, however, 1-2 months later only 1 in 100 people tested is COVID-19 positive that tells me that things are likely getting much better. Unfortunately, with the government, you can't always trust that they will do things properly or honestly. So, if they were originally testing only people they considered very sick and later they expanded testing to include anyone who asked for it, that would muddy the waters quite a bit. Hopefully someone of importance realizes that we're talking about a life and death matter. So it is important to have valid numbers to work with.

I must admit that I don't necessarily trust the integrity of China's numbers either.

[mtalbot_ca]

Covid-19 has inertia. Infection numbers of today reflect the ones infected 5-7 days ago. With a contagion ratio of 2:1 do the math....

[68Camaro]

I saw early numbers from Italy earlier and was hoping they had broken the back of it - but no. The final daily numbers came out and deaths are still increasing.

I'm not going to publish the graph I created but I took the JHU data and scaled the Italian data by the population ratio with the US (it's an approximation, doesn't consider a number of things, so don't throw too many rocks at it) and compared with the US data, and it clearly shows both how much time the decision to close our borders bought us, and gives an idea of where we would be if we had done what the Italians did. It would be VERY bad here - 175,000 known infected (not counting those not yet tested) and 17,000+ dead here already - with the curve still moving up and things still getting worse before they could get better.

I hope the speculated therapies announced recently will provide some treatments for the serious illnesses yet to come, before they die. They sound promising!

[theo]

I realize that this is a serious situation as things look bad in Italy and in Spain, but part of me is skeptical about the impact of this virus. This is supposedly a highly infectious disease that has been in this country for at least 2 months (probably a bit longer.) We have only been practicing social distancing and self-isolation for 1 to 2 weeks. In the prior 6 to 8 weeks we were going to sporting events, bars and parties. COVID19 should be all over the country by now. Even with a 14 day incubation period we should already be seeing an increase in pneumonia cases. Where are the firm numbers on this? My point is that all the information we have does not quite match up.

[68Camaro]

I realize that this is a serious situation as things look bad in Italy and in Spain, but part of me is skeptical about the impact of this virus. ... Even with a 14 day incubation period we should already be seeing an increase in pneumonia cases. Where are the firm numbers on this? My point is that all the information we have does not quite match up.

I think we have blunted the initial impact slightly, but I believe it does match up. It is very contagious but ... for most people it progresses slowly. (Some exceptions - it hits a few like a ton of bricks.) Some have been practicing social distancing before that was even a phrase (I went back through my family texts and I sent my first warnings to family and to our church senior pastor on 24 Feb, and I doubt I was the only one doing this.)

The curve extrapolation from the data (not a real model - but you can take an optimistic extrapolation of the US data and see one path, and you can look at the Italian data and see another much worse path - is not good even if we blunt the curve. And the big hot spots (NYC, Seattle, SoCal) are starting to breakout and get critical. I believe it is correct that most people are eventually going to get this - at then at some point a herd immunity develops where spreading stops because so many have survived and developed immunities that it can't easily spread - unless it mutates.

[theo]

Thanks for the response. I've heard a lot about the concept of "herd immunity." It is being argued that it is inevitable (and even preferable) that 50% to 70% of the population contracts this disease slowly over the next 12 to 18 months. I understand that 20% of the population contracted H1N1 in 2009, with even smaller percentages contracting SARS and MERS. Why is "herd immunity" necessary for COVID19, but not for these other strains?

[Thogey]

. Why is "herd immunity" necessary for COVID19, but not for these other strains?

Because it cannot be contained.

[Thogey]

This is Medcram.

https://www.youtube.com/user/MEDCRAMvideos

I have been watching "the corona virus updates" for a few weeks. This ICU doctor gives daily updates. It's pretty technical and broken down well. The information has been way ahead of media reporting. The info really may help you survive.

For instance. The cloroquine is effective in moving zinc through your cells. If you are deficient in zinc it may not help.
If you take too much zinc it will reverse your zinc absorption. He has been discussing this for quite a while now. DYODD, but there is terrific briefings here.

[mtalbot_ca]

Because of our interconnections, this virus is exploiting our social nature. Strangely, social distancing is the only way forward whilst we wait for a cure or a vaccine. Stay safe.