Harry Dent is trying to sell a book...

[shinnosuke]

...and you ain't gonna like what he's got to say about PMs.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/debt-deleveraging-demographics-mean-great-depression-ahead-dent-20110331-125135-967.html;_ylt=Ahms_FMeNz3U9ktWEho6xGq7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2cTQxOGttBHBvcwMxMQRzZWMDdG9wU3RvcmllcwRzbGsDZGVidGRlbGV2ZXJh?sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

[stevkc]

The last thing I remember hearing from this guy was that the Dow was going to 50,000 by 2010. He nailed that one.

[Corsair]

The last thing I remember hearing from this guy was that the Dow was going to 50,000 by 2010. He nailed that one.

Even after something stupid like that, if his name was Harvey Dent, I'd still believe in him.

[shinnosuke]

Maybe his theory is that if you make enough predictions eventually one of them will be correct. We are a sound byte generation and since debt -- both sovereign and private -- has been in the news so much, Dent's comments may ring true for some. I just can't get away from the idea that full-blown inflation is coming. Or at least it's coming before deflation.

But let's see...which would be the better of the two as a manufactured "crisis" for the Fed to step in and rescue us with an altogether new currency? "You must turn in all of your paper money and coins by midnight tonight or else...ve haf vays of making you talk.

[rainsonme]

I could not get the clip to play, but I read Dent's book, the Coming Depression. He works on demographics and historical cycles, some of them 600 year cycles, which seems perposteous to me. His analysis of the demographics in this country is concerning; people spend and produce the most in age range of 30 to 55; the baby boom is just now past the high point on the consumption/production curve; the nation's wealth will be declining due to demographics for the next 10 years or so. Similar to Japan. He also sees the deleveraging of over 100 trillion dollars in debt as much more significant than the printing of 2 or 3 trillion in fiat dollars. He may be right, or he may have just sold me a book (which I got for a couple $ on discount). I am still collecting silver coins. If Dent convinces some people to dump all their silver and gold, that should make this board happy.

One commmon theme between the hyper-inflationists and Dent's depression scenario: own land. I don't own property other than an interest in the house I live in. But I think farmable or at least gardenable land may be a better investment than PM's, covering many different scenario's, as long as you own it, and it's not debt.

[hejira11]

Is he giving away a Peace dollar with purchase??

[theo]

My question for Mr. Dent is, do you really think that governments and central banks will allow the debt to properly de-leverage? The reason that we are in our current predicament is their unwillingness to allow the free markets to function on their own.

[shinnosuke]

My question for Mr. Dent is, do you really think that governments and central banks will allow the debt to properly de-leverage? The reason that we are in our current predicament is their unwillingness to allow the free markets to function on their own.

Exactly...in an out-and-out power struggle, the central banks beat Dent every time.

[rainsonme]

What Dent says in response to the central banks efforts to inflate our way out of the deleveraging, is that this time it is just too big, by Dent's calculations, almost 200 trillion in debt to deleverage, and by most other calculations somewhere over 70 trillion. He says the central banks will try, but fail, to re-inflate.

Meanwhile, Harry is happy, 'cause he's selling books to fools like me, even if they are on the discount shelf. And no, there was no Peace Dollar wrapped with the book.

There are deflationary pressures: conintued decline in housing values; high unemployment; low wage increases, tight credit. And of course there are inflationary pressues: energy, food, PM's, raw materials, printing dollars. We are at or very close to a tipping point. Either Dent or the rest of the world will soon be vendicated.

[theo]

What Dent says in response to the central banks efforts to inflate our way out of the deleveraging, is that this time it is just too big, by Dent's calculations, almost 200 trillion in debt to deleverage, and by most other calculations somewhere over 70 trillion. He says the central banks will try, but fail, to re-inflate.quote]

And how will they fail? The Fed has cart banche power to create money, which they will do until all the "systemically important" banks are made whole. This will contimue to erode the value of our currency. They will be some deleveraging in that some smaller banks and companies will be allowed to fail, but it won't be any match for the amount of created to save the larger banks.

There are deflationary pressures: conintued decline in housing values; high unemployment; low wage increases, tight credit. And of course there are inflationary pressues: energy, food, PM's, raw materials, printing dollars. We are at or very close to a tipping point. Either Dent or the rest of the world will soon be vendicated.

Something else that Dent is missing is that "deflationary pressures" only matter in face of demand driven inflation (an overheating economy). Our inflation is caused by the expansion of the money supply. In other words, the price of bread will increase whether you can afford it or not. Any drop in demand will be meant with lower (or even nonexistant) supply, not lower prices.

[theo]

What Dent says in response to the central banks efforts to inflate our way out of the deleveraging, is that this time it is just too big, by Dent's calculations, almost 200 trillion in debt to deleverage, and by most other calculations somewhere over 70 trillion. He says the central banks will try, but fail, to re-inflate.quote]

There are deflationary pressures: conintued decline in housing values; high unemployment; low wage increases, tight credit. And of course there are inflationary pressues: energy, food, PM's, raw materials, printing dollars. We are at or very close to a tipping point. Either Dent or the rest of the world will soon be vendicated.

He says the central banks will try, but fail, to re-inflate.

And how will they fail? The Fed has cart banche power to create money, which they will do until all the "systemically important" banks are made whole. This will contimue to erode the value of our currency. There will be some deleveraging in that smaller banks and companies will be allowed to fail, but it won't be any match for the amount of $ created to save the larger banks.

Something else that Dent is missing is that "deflationary pressures" only matter in face of demand driven inflation (an overheating economy). Our inflation is caused by the expansion of the money supply. In other words, the price of bread will increase whether you can afford it or not. Any drop in demand will be meant with lower (or even nonexistant) supply, not lower prices.