2,000 points down...Black Tuesday

[neilgin1]

London's aflame. For the very first time....i'm trying to find a way to take this out of political rancor, the President didnt speak with authority, he seemed....ill at ease, and the panic is ramping.

Just remember, London is a VERY important City in the financial world, and its burning...literally.

Truly panic is in the air. I think 7500 will be the intermediate term bottom.

One of the younger men on the forum was asking why gold seemed to shrug off the panic in equities, yet silver was buffeted by down drafts. Gold is a sovereign metal, country to country transfers, if your net worth is 8 to 10 digits, you seek safety in gold, silvers an afterthought. Who in their right mind would try and short gold in the futures? same with silver, BUT given the nature of the market participants in silver, and the lower open interest, you can do a counter intuitive move, like shorting silver and overwhelming any buyers, but you would get killed trying to do that in gold...thats the reason big players have been using silver futures like an ATM for years, shorting it, crushing petite bourgeouis traders. These ARE FREE MARKETS...right?

You are free to trade silver futures ...or not, right. (i'm not defending any tomchincanery, but i assume most men here are ardent mercantilists, free market capitalist's...am right in this assumption?.....you desire an abosolute MINIMUM of gummit intrusion in markets, right?...so bear with me, and lets see if we can walk this out)

lets pretend, i've been involved in the NY Comex silver pit since 81...got a seat in 84, pit traded until 99, when i was hired by the "First National Bank", to run their silver trading operations, my base salary in 99 was 500k a year, and now my base salary is 2 million , however thats peanuts, beacuse i get a 33% YEARLY BONUS based upon net profits of the trading desk i run in silver, i now control roughly 700 million dollars, and oversee 4 other guys, whom i've handpicked, all off the floor, meaning absolute loyalty and zip lock lips. We all have extensive relationships with other guys at 3 other LARGE banks, we all socialize, go to the same parties, etc....we all talk to each other every day, not in some OVERTLY nefarious way, but because we talked everyday since we were all in our early twenties.

so....an early morning conversation might go like this:

me: you see the COTS?...you believe that?

other guy: YEAH.

me: 70 per cent small specs long.

other guy: i know...you flat?

me: yeh...check out the daily, we're right at a double top around 17 and a quarter (17.25)...you see that?

other guy: yeh, looks good.

me: yeh...lets push it up , see if there's buy stops, we'll buy here, you buy, lemme call JJ (another bank metals desk trader) see if he's in, and if we can close this thing above 17 and a half, you know that every dunceski small spec'll get wet, and will start throwing in paper at the open the day after, i'll bet anything you see a buncha bids at 17.75, we take out every bid north of 16 even, then i'll start offering hondo's (100 cars lots) at 15.75...when you see that 15.75 paint, go ahead, just do your thing, i'll be slamming it too.

other guy: where you think the stops are?

me:...probably a few below 15, but i bet the real stuff is at 14 even...thats the last bottom...you see that?

other guy: yeh...right....you wanna cover there?

me: basically, but if the stops are at 14.25, ill start there, but lets see if we can close it below 14, then when the houses start to offer the next day, we'll cover somewhere below 14, but call when you start to cover, if i hear anything, like i wanna cover, i'll call you, before i cover.

other guy: (laughing) bull[excrement], you'll whispering in the phone at 35 (14.35)

me: eat my ###, you half mick dago...serious, call me or i'll call you.

other guy: 'kay....you gonna call JJ?

me: yeh, i'll tell him call you, lets get this together...it'll be fun.

and this goes on week after week and month after month....because at the end of the year my bank metals trading desk has made a net profit of 410 million dollars, of which i recieve a 135 million dollar bonus, minus the 26 million dollar bonus i give my four guys to whack up.

so, if it was YOU in that position, how would YOU trade silver?

"free markets".

[68Camaro]

Not that there is any pleasure in it, but things are lookin' spooky. Had thought this afternoon might change things, but it just got worse. There is no good news in the air, the Pres is pointing fingers instead of leading, the Germans are spooked, London is burning (listened to BBC World on the way home and they even seemed spooked in their stiff upper lip way). The end of the day attempt to stop the bleedin didn't even phase it. I'm goin' with 700-1200 points down, possibly a 10% market suspension. Not 2000 down, but... "point" taken.

[neilgin1]

Not that there is any pleasure in it, but things are lookin' spooky. Had thought this afternoon might change things, but it just got worse. There is no good news in the air, the Pres is pointing fingers instead of leading, the Germans are spooked, London is burning (listened to BBC World on the way home and they even seemed spooked in their stiff upper lip way). The end of the day attempt to stop the bleedin didn't even phase it. I'm goin' with 700-1200 points down, possibly a 10% market suspension. Not 2000 down, but... "point" taken.

i got to admit...London scared me. For the first time in this whole "thing", i'm more than a bit unnerved. Probably becoz i worked and lived in London for a while, know the City. Albeit, my fear is illogical because i live in probably one of the least densely populated rural counties in the Upper Midwest of the United States of America...maybe because also this weekend there was a nasty race riot in Milwaukee, at the Wisconsin State Fair, hundreds of black males beating the tar out of anyone white, and that includes SEVEN POLICEMEN, because quote unquote, the police were "overwhelmed".

whisky tango foxtrot is that?!? where i come from...Chicago, its the cops that do the overwhelming, as they should...not these days in Chicago, because the police are 2,000 officers undermanned, morale is terrible and flash mobs increase, the press is keeping a lid on this, same with Milwaukee....and now London?


plus the lid really hasnt come off the pot yet...and things are going like this? at 52, i gotta live like i'm in Mad Max?...okaay...just pass them damn CCW laws and i'm in....but i am not built to be "VICTIM"....F### that, excuse my language, and sentiment....oh well, just gotta man up.

[OneBiteAtATime]

plus the lid really hasnt come off the pot yet...and things are going like this? at 52, i gotta live like i'm in Mad Max?...

Mid-thirties and I'm thinking the same thing. At 21, it would have been a different story.

At 34, with a family, I'm thinking - how am I going to harden this 7 year old for what he's about to face. Right now, tears are too quick to come and anger is too fast to the surface, grown-up decisionmaking is no where in there. If it will wait 6-7 years, he'd be valuable at my back. Maybe I'd be surprised at what a 9 yr old can do.

neilgin - what are CCW laws?

[68Camaro]

neilgin - what are CCW laws?

I'm not neil, but one of the various acronyms for concealed carry weapons permit.

[OneBiteAtATime]

Re: 2,000 points down...Black Tuesday
by 68Camaro » Mon Aug 08, 2011 8:09 pm

OneBiteAtATime wrote:
neilgin - what are CCW laws?

I'm not neil, but one of the various acronyms for concealed carry weapons permit.

lol... fool. what does ATM stand for? How bout USA? Really? I've never heard of FBI.

[theo]

Its frustrating that this market leaves very few places to invest. Many of the miners are flat to down as is CEF. The only PM investments doing well are physical and GLD. And oil is just getting crushed; down about 10% in two days. Also, I know that the shorting ETFs (like SDS) are showing nice gains, but how long will the government allow that to continue? I can't believe that after all the Keynesian/QE bs cash is still king and treasuries are still doing well. And if I hear one more talking head say, "The S&P downgrade is unwarranted because the U.S. can just print more money to pay its debts" I'm going to need a new T.V. Anyway it looks like Moody's is getting ready to follow suit (perhaps this Friday?) and if that happens the lid is really going to come off.

Thus ends the rant.

[68Camaro]

PHYS is the other GLD option. CEF is down because it's a silver/gold mix and the silver is down, but because of that it's actually the better buy of any of the choices I would go for. Or PSLV if you want to go with silver, because its a good buy now also. I bought in again to PSLV Thu and Fri and almost hit it again today (it dropped to 16.98) but missed the big drop it took by a minute (I didn't have an order in), and by the time I got it in it was on the way back up too fast to catch.

[kidman232]

london riots have nothing to do with the economy, but rather some cops abusing their power and people lashing out

[68Camaro]

london riots have nothing to do with the economy, but rather some cops abusing their power and people lashing out

You must not be listening to the reporters. Think what you want, but this is not some random uprising of the poor abused lower-class against the oppressive upper-class. There are organized, weaponized gangs (in numbers of scores to hundreds) with lookouts communicating by cell phone, who are actively looting parts of the city, staying away from the police.

[68Camaro]

And Asia reacts to Wall street - Nikkei and Hang Seng both diving, 4.6 and 7%, respectively, so far.

[Oakair]

london riots have nothing to do with the economy, but rather some cops abusing their power and people lashing out

You must not be listening to the reporters. Think what you want, but this is not some random uprising of the poor abused lower-class against the oppressive upper-class. There are organized, weaponized gangs (in numbers of scores to hundreds) with lookouts communicating by cell phone, who are actively looting parts of the city, staying away from the police.

"Prime Minister David Cameron cut short his holiday to fly home to tackle the violence, which appeared to be led by youths alienated by years of underemployment which left them feeling marginalised even before the economic downturn.

"It's been building up for years. All it needed was a spark," said E. Nan, a young man in a baseball cap surrounded by other youths in Hackney in east London. "We ain't got no jobs, no money ... We heard that other people were getting things for free, so why not us?""

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/5 ... f-violence

[theo]

london riots have nothing to do with the economy, but rather some cops abusing their power and people lashing out

I think the police incident may have been the spark (or excuse) rather than the actual cause. Things have been on edge their for a while.

[theo]

PHYS is the other GLD option. CEF is down because it's a silver/gold mix and the silver is down, but because of that it's actually the better buy of any of the choices I would go for. Or PSLV if you want to go with silver, because its a good buy now also. I bought in again to PSLV Thu and Fri and almost hit it again today (it dropped to 16.98) but missed the big drop it took by a minute (I didn't have an order in), and by the time I got it in it was on the way back up too fast to catch.

Thanks, PHYS and PSLV might be the places to be when Moody's and Fitch announce. Any idea why the miners continue to underperform PMs? Are they being shorted?

Edit: I'm thinking that oil and agriculture plays might make a recovery once its apparent that the U.S. sub AAA rating is here to stay.

[Country]

Futures are DOWN 316 points this evening. The SPX DOWN 33 more points.

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

In a CRASH-LIKE stock market, almost ALL stocks and ETFs are taken down, as investors liquidate everything at market. Only after the CRASH, do the fundamentals come back into play.

[68Camaro]

Gold at 1745 - what a run-up, and I don't think its done - I'm going to bed. 19 points away from Sinclair's "parabolic" number... I don't put any faith in 1764 myself as a magic number, but the guy has intuition, knowledge, and some significant gonads (for a geek).

[68Camaro]

Thanks, PHYS and PSLV might be the places to be when Moody's and Fitch announce. Any idea why the miners continue to underperform PMs? Are they being shorted?

Ray probably has some insight. He thinks they are being shorted, not sure why they are being picked on, unless it's another case of just because they can.

[Treetop]

Gold at 1745 - what a run-up, and I don't think its done - I'm going to bed. 19 points away from Sinclair's "parabolic" number... I don't put any faith in 1764 myself as a magic number, but the guy has intuition, knowledge, and some significant gonads (for a geek).

HEY!!!! dont tread on us geeks mr 68. Or we can take this out back behind the barn.....

[OneBiteAtATime]

HEY!!!! dont tread on us geeks mr 68. Or we can take this out back behind the barn.....

The chessboard is set up behind the barn.

[Thogey]

london riots have nothing to do with the economy, but rather some cops abusing their power and people lashing out

This has nothing to do with cops or the economy.

No cop, abusing their power, would motivate a civilized human being to go out a rob an uninvolved merchant.

Be sure, this is just opportunistic behavior by folks who decide to act like a herd of wild animals.

[Market Harmony]

PHYS is the other GLD option. CEF is down because it's a silver/gold mix and the silver is down, but because of that it's actually the better buy of any of the choices I would go for. Or PSLV if you want to go with silver, because its a good buy now also. I bought in again to PSLV Thu and Fri and almost hit it again today (it dropped to 16.98) but missed the big drop it took by a minute (I didn't have an order in), and by the time I got it in it was on the way back up too fast to catch.

Thanks, PHYS and PSLV might be the places to be when Moody's and Fitch announce. Any idea why the miners continue to underperform PMs? Are they being shorted?

Edit: I'm thinking that oil and agriculture plays might make a recovery once its apparent that the U.S. sub AAA rating is here to stay.

Perhaps it could be speculation that liquidity could dry up for many of the juniors... if they cannot get easy cash (low rates) then they either fail, issue more stock, or wait until their valuation is so low that a bigger fish scoops them up. In this scenario, even the miners without the need for loans will be using their cash to buy the loser juniors... so cash FLOW in the industry goes down and thus makes it a less attractive industry. This scenario is incredibly bullish for PM's

[neilgin1]

neilgin - what are CCW laws?

concealed carry.

[Thogey]

In Az you can buy a piece from a private party, no paperwork, and stuff it in your pocket...Legally.

Bully!

[Rodebaugh]

In Az you can buy a piece from a private party, no paperwork, and stuff it in your pocket...Legally.

Bully!

You can buy them at yard sales, garage sales, and flea markets in WV (legal)....but have to holster it in plain view without a CW permit.

I only own one gun registered to me. Thats a fun fact.

Edit: and yes the DJIA is going to get smoked tomorrow.

[neilgin1]

In Az you can buy a piece from a private party, no paperwork, and stuff it in your pocket...Legally.

Bully!

You can buy them at yard sales, garage sales, and flea markets in WV (legal)....but have to holster it in plain view without a CW permit.

I only own one gun registered to me. Thats a fun fact.

Edit: and yes the DJIA is going to get smoked tomorrow.

Rodee, 0400 CST, just woke up...surprised to see the 500 is only off 3 pts...maybe its petered out for a spell.....i mean Crudes down to 78, that a pretty huge lift...the dollar IS holding at 74-75.....QE3 IS underway...stealth, the ESB has to be monetizing....you might have seen total market capitulation..IF you did see a wild 2,000 point sell of in the Dow, thats the buy....this MIGHT just have burned itself out..for the time.